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Our MissionTo Provide Uncompromising Investment Research
EXPLANATION OF JTVIR’S INDUSTRY LEADING
FIRST-HALF
JTVIR Cover Letter for First coverage
Important notice! JTVIR provides independent research reports to institutional clients for fixed and subscription fees. JTVIR's affiliate, JTVIO, provides advisory services to entities in connection with financing deals, mergers and acquisitions, mine services, valuations, fairness opinions, strategy, corporate services and capital raising. For its advisory services, JTVIO may be compensated up to a year after the termination of JTVIO's services or advisory agreement. It is JTVIR's policy not to provide research reports or updates to such reports for any entity that has engaged JTVIO's services.
Company ProfileJOHN TUMAZOS VERY INDEPENDENT RESEARCH, LLC (JTVIR LLC) is registered as an investment advisor in the State of NJ. We have 30-odd institutional clients in New York, CT, Massachusetts, California, Wisconsin, Minnesota, North Carolina, and Florida. We do fundamental research on commodities markets and common stocks in the metals and forest products sectors. For example, in the second-half of 2007 we traveled abroad five times to visit mines and smelters, and published 92 investment reports. We collected our first revenue on September 20, made our first email communications seeking revenue September 4 and 10, became registered August 27, filed for registration August 10, formed our LLC on July 6 and "changed course" on June 6, 2007 when the former Prudential Equities Group shut down. We sent reports "developmentally" to our former mailing list from July 8 to August 27, 2007 "not for compensation" while we completed registration and through mid-November in a "grace period" as our clients engaged us.We are regulated like a money manager, but we manage no client funds as our business is to advise active money managers. We are not a broker-dealer, but deliver the same basic research services that we had since 1981 as an employee at major brokerage firms. In our business model we sell our research direct payments and deliver it via email and our www.veryindependentresearch.com web site. Our clients pay us via direct checks, wire transfer, commission sharing agreements or soft dollar payments. Initially we have had no sales force, and our clients learn of us from our existing reputation, existing relationships and "word of mouth." Please click on the "Become a Subscriber Member" button to the left or simply phone or email us if you want to buy our research Special Events November 18-19, 2009 Conference webcast link for November 18 and 19, 2009 Webcast for March 31, 2009 http://www.wsw.com/webcast/vir3/
February 8, 2010
Dear Friend,
Please contact us
to reserve one-on-meetings for our March 24-25 Metals Conference
at the New York Helmsley, 212 East 42nd Street. In addition to
the 22 companies speaking, there will be three additional
functions. Knight Capital Group will host a "speakers dinner"
at 7 pm on March 23rd at the 21 Club with about 10 seats
available for the buy-side. WJB Capital will sponsor
"Exploration Cocktails" at 5 pm on the 24th and a "Core Shack"
at 2:20 pm on the 25th both at the New York Helmsley, and an
additional 25 to 30 companies will be present at those events.
We draw upon several organizations in addition to our own eight
salespeople to improve attendance, which grew to 275 people at
our prior November 18-19, 2009 conference.
We cut our price target for
Domtar to $68 from $74 as we cut our earnings estimates to
reflect just a $25 per ton second-quarter price hike and used a
$10 per ton $60 rather than $70 per ton long-term margin
estimate. Please note our valuations are based on the current
43.3 mm diluted shares, and that if Domtar were to use $0.9
billion in 2013-16 to buy back common shares as we estimate its
2016 earnings would reach $8-$9 and our price target would rise
to $117.
Our weekly review of
spot markets is attached. There
are indications that economic activity in China has been “too
hot,” and the government policy there seeks to restrain its
economy. The U.S., EU and Japan have been too weak. Taken
together, the world economy exhibits a slow or gradual recovery.
It is possible that interest rates around the world rise from historic low levels. Many countries have begun to increase rates, such as China, India, Australia and others. This could reduce the stimulus to gold or various commodities prices.
We regard the difficulties of the euro currency as very bullish for gold, and regard the dollar appreciation against the euro as a “non-positive for the U.S.” Economic declines in Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain or Ireland do not make the U.S. financially strong. We believe the failure of a currency is bullish for gold. We believe the Chinese government might reduce its holdings or weightings of its holdings away from the dollar or euro and into gold to drive up gold prices. We rate Greystar, Agnico-Eagle and AngloGold Ashanti Overweight and Newmont, Barrick and Goldcorp Neutral among gold shares.
Faithfully,
John C. Tumazos
Contact InformationPlease Contact us with any questions.
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Copyright © 2008 John Tumazos Very Independent Research,
LLC
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