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Our MissionTo Provide Uncompromising Investment Research
Important notice! JTVIR provides independent research reports to institutional clients for fixed and subscription fees. JTVIR's affiliate, JTVIO, provides advisory services to entities in connection with financing deals, mergers and acquisitions, mine services, valuations, fairness opinions, strategy, corporate services and capital raising. For its advisory services, JTVIO may be compensated up to a year after the termination of JTVIO's services or advisory agreement. It is JTVIR's policy not to provide research reports or updates to such reports for any entity that has engaged JTVIO's services.
Company ProfileJOHN TUMAZOS VERY INDEPENDENT RESEARCH, LLC (JTVIR LLC) is registered as an investment advisor in the State of NJ. We have 30-odd institutional clients in New York, CT, Massachusetts, California, Wisconsin, Minnesota, North Carolina, and Florida. We do fundamental research on commodities markets and common stocks in the metals and forest products sectors. For example, in the second-half of 2007 we traveled abroad five times to visit mines and smelters, and published 92 investment reports. We collected our first revenue on September 20, made our first email communications seeking revenue September 4 and 10, became registered August 27, filed for registration August 10, formed our LLC on July 6 and "changed course" on June 6, 2007 when the former Prudential Equities Group shut down. We sent reports "developmentally" to our former mailing list from July 8 to August 27, 2007 "not for compensation" while we completed registration and through mid-November in a "grace period" as our clients engaged us.We are regulated like a money manager, but we manage no client funds as our business is to advise active money managers. We are not a broker-dealer, but deliver the same basic research services that we had since 1981 as an employee at major brokerage firms. In our business model we sell our research direct payments and deliver it via email and our www.veryindependentresearch.com web site. Our clients pay us via direct checks, wire transfer, commission sharing agreements or soft dollar payments. Initially we have had no sales force, and our clients learn of us from our existing reputation, existing relationships and "word of mouth." Please click on the "Become a Subscriber Member" button to the left or simply phone or email us if you want to buy our research Special Events Webcast link for Nov, 29-30, 2011
January 26, 2012
Dear Friend,
We cut earnings estimates for Rock-Tenn
due to lower export volumes, lower estimated industrywide operating
rates in 2012 and some merger execution difficulties. We maintained
our $54 price target, however, and did not lower it as lower natural
gas prices, lower OCC scrap inputs, cap ex benefits and lower cap ex
provide offsetting benefits. We stayed at an Underweight rating as
we believe many stocks offer better alternatives, such as Domtar, IP
or PKG in Forest Products or ABX, AEM or Pretium in gold or various
diversified mines or base metals mines.
Tomorrow the US DOJ is due to rule on
the merger of IP and Temple-Inland, and Rock-Tenn shares should
benefit if the DOJ approves and vice versa. We rate IP Overweight
would raise our IP price target from $37 by up to $7 if its
transaction wins approval as we would estimate a 2% pricing
advantage followup on corrugated box customization and graphic
design. We rate Temple-Inland Underweight, as it trades within 1% of
the sweetened takeover offer and might drop towards $20 if the US
DOJ rejects the deal as it did Verizon and T-Mobile a few weeks ago.
Faithfully,
'
John C. Tumazos, CFA
Contact InformationPlease Contact us with any questions.
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Copyright © 2008 John Tumazos Very Independent Research,
LLC
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