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September 28, 2008 Dear Friend, We depart Monday evening to Congo and Zambia to visit FCX's partner Lundin Mining at Tenke Fungurume, Anvil Mining, Katanga Mining and First Quantum Minerals to see the majority of Central African copper output. Joe Reagor, Sean Heberling and Alicia Aydin will be on hand to answer your questions, and my email and 732 740 3574 celluluar may work as well. Please circle the November 12, 2008 date of our next metals conference. Aluminum inventories rose 573,000 tonnes at a record clip in the third-quarter, and various grades of steel scrap appear prime to have fallen $300 to $500 per ton from July reocrds. The only good news to report is that ArcelorMittal will cut fourth-quarter output 15% as the most alert metals player. The news is not so bad in other sectors. Copper, lead and zinc inventories fell last week, wtih lead inventories falling five straight weeks and copper exchange stocks falling in 11 of the 23 past weeks. Gold and silver continue to rise with the weaker dollar and the finance sector mess. It is possible these sectors BOOM on the backs of massive government stimulus such as the $0.7 trillion U.S. bank bailout. Selected paper companies should benefit from lower caustic soda inputs as globally perhaps 5% of alumina refineries idle. We focus on Overweight rated International Paper, Temple-Inland and Domtar and Neutral rated MeadWestvaco and Smurfit-Stone Container as beneficiaries. Faithfully, John C. Tumazos |
Copyright © 2008 John Tumazos Very Independent Research,
LLC
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