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May 26, 2009 These four major statistical organizations reported their monthly or quarterly data last Wednesday, which are interpreted in the attached report and particularly its tables 1-4. Aluminum data suggest increasing oversupply, and Monday night we downgraded Alcoa and Century Aluminum to Underweight with new price targets of $6 and $4, respectively. Gold data shows record scrap supply and ETF purchases as investors drive the market. Inflation expectations may be the highest since 1980, and are high enough to perhaps be disappointed. Copper inventories on exchanges have fallen one-third as refined supply grew 2.5% and demand supposedly fell 3.5%, but could have fallen over 10% if China's 33% demand gain through March is not true consumption. Faithfully, John C. Tumazos |
Copyright © 2008 John Tumazos Very Independent Research,
LLC
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