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We monitor a large body of spot market
and supply-demand data, which we summarize in our weekend "Spot Markets"
reports. We do not reprint our database from the mid-1980s as it won't fit,
but can freely send out the excel upon requests. We are making a conscious
effort to present large bodies of data graphically, and make our reports a
little easier to read.
Herein we analyze the graphs of various
metals market data series, including nonferrous prices versus inventories,
US demand data versus global activity measures, etc.
It is very noteworthy how severely
depressed both U.S. steel and aluminum demand data are, even with recoveries
to 72% steel industry operating rates and positive aluminum industry order
comparisions in the past month. Less than half of the lost ground in U.S.
consumptions has been recovered. Global or Chinese demand data, in
contrast, shows improvements.
It is notable how in the past 18 months
aluminum, copper, lead, zinc and nickel prices have risen without inventory
drops, although nickel inventories finally started to fall rapidly in the
past 60 days.
Faithfully,
John C. Tumazos
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Copyright © 2008 John Tumazos Very Independent Research,
LLC
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