June 7, 2010
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June 7, 2010

Dear Friend,

We will adjust our various company earnings estimates as we are able to review various models. 

 

The year-to-date averages are $0.981 for aluminum, $3.284 for copper, $9.798 for nickel, $0.969 for lead, $1.007 for zinc, $42.08 for uranium, $1,136.48 for gold, $17.393 for silver, $1,595.86 for platinum and $466.41 for palladium. We are are making a mid-year "housekeeping" to adjust various price forecasts, some higher and some lower.   We are not responding to last week's particular selloffs.  

 

We are raising our 2010 estimates for gold, silver, nickel, iron ore, and met coal.  We are raising our gold price estimate to $1,160 from $1,100, silver to $17 from $15, nickel to $9.25 from $9.00, second-half iron ore to $125 from $90 and second-half met coal to $225 from$ 200.

 

 We are raising our 2011 gold price estimate to $1,150 from $1,050, and staying at $1,050 afterwards.   We are raising our 2011 silver price estimate to $17 from $15 and 2012 onwards to $16 from $15.  We are raising our 2012 aluminum estimate to $1.10 from $1.00 and 2013 onwards aluminum price estimate to $1.20 from $1.00 as we believe recent aluminum price declines plus global electricity price hikes will curtail supplies.  We are raising our 2011 nickel price estimate to $9 from $7 due to declining inventories.  We are raising our 2011 iron ore price estimate to $125 from $90, 2012 and 2013 to $100 from $90, and cutting 2014 onwards to $80 from $90.  We are raising our 2011 onwards met coal price estimate to $250 from $225 owing to the spate of recent mine failures.

 

We cut our 2010 aluminum price estimate to $0.93 from $0.99 per lb.  We are cutting our 2010 lead and zinc price estimates each to $0.90 from $1.00 per lb.  We cut our 2011 copper price estimate to $3.50 from $4.00, 2012 to $4 from $5 as there have been few mine output misses in the 2010 first half causing inventories to be more than expected and remained at $5 for 2013 and 2014 and $3.50 for 2015 onwards.

 
John C. Tumazos, CFA
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Last modified: 05/25/11

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