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March 7, 2010 Dear Friend,
Attached is the Final Agenda
for our March 24-25 conference. We have tabulated 33 one-on-one
requests thus far, and are looking forwards to a good program.
We updated our Xstrata model
for Glencore's $2.45 billion buyback of Prodeco, the Colombian
coal unit. It had little impact, suggesting the price was
"fair."
The $70 per ton rise to $470
for #1 busheling steel scrap in Chicago suggests $650 to $700
per ton hot-rolled sheet prices if sustained. We expect a steel
market "suspended animation" for about 45 days as steel
customers await a "Spring Thaw" to $100 to $150 per ton lower
clean scrap and finished steel prices. In the interim we expect
steel buyers to place imported steel orders where practical,
damaging domestic producers seeking these hikes.
Note Chinese aluminum output
fell in January for the second straight month. Nonferrous
inventories fell last week for 5 of 6 LME commodities on
Shanghai, Comex and LME exchanges combined with lead as the sole
rise.
We are off to the PDAC
conference in Toronto.
Faithfully,
John C. Tumazos
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Copyright © 2008 John Tumazos Very Independent Research,
LLC
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