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August 22, 2010 Dear Friend,
Nonferrous metals
appear very strong through the Summer as suggested in
June WBMS demand and supply data released August 18th,
global aluminum output data released August 20th and
nonferrous metals inventory declines on exchanges
throughout the Summer. In fact, since 1988 it appears
copper inventories have risen 19 of 23 years in the
months of August with the only declines in 2000, 2003,
2004 and the first three weeks of 2009. Last week
copper, nickel and zinc inventories fell while aluminum,
lead and tin rose, and the four-week-moving averages of
the changes in inventory decline for four of these six
metals with only lead and aluminum up. In contrast,
steel output has fallen by about 10% from April to July
as disclosed on August 20th, and iron ore, met coal and
steel scrap spot price declines reflect it.
The Australian
election results are inconclusive, and the outcome of
the mining tax debate is unknown. The
Greens, Independents and Family First parties had
particular successes and collectively won 16% of the
vote. Pre-election polls tended to query preferences
"head-to-head" of Labor vs. Liberals, and did not detect
gains among other parties. While the Australian Labor
Party lost ground, the Liberal-National "right"
coalition gained much less of the disaffected vote than
expected. Twenty minor parties rose to 6.6% of the vote
in 2010 up from 4.7% won by the seventeen minor parties
in 2007.
,
Our comments and
photos from visiting General Moly's Mt. Hope mine are
attached. We also visited Newmont Mining , Klondex
Mines, Midway Gold, AuEx Ventures, Fronteer Gold, Nevada
exploration grounds of Agnico-Eagle Mines and
Yukon-Nevada Gold as well, and hope to write up some of
our notes and photos as well.
There are many research trips in the coming
months, and want to remind you in the event any of these
trips interest you or you would like us to help you get
invited. Just let us know.
These include:
Goldcorp
Sept 13-15 Red Lake, Mussewhite and Porcupine
gold mines from Toronto (I will attend)
Denver Gold
Show Sept 20-22 Denver (I will attend)
Coeur d'Alene Mines
Sept 8-10 Kensington Gold Mine from Juneau,
Alaska
Great Basin
Gold Sept 16 Hollister Gold mine north
of Battle Mt., NV
Congo and
Zambia Sept 24-30 Anvil Mining, Equinox,
Lundin Mining (FCX Tenke), First Quantum and Hana Mining
(I went in 2008)
Newmont
Mining Sept 30 Boddington gold-copper
mine near Perth, Australia (probably Joe Reagor from my
team will go)
NRG Energy, Technip Oct
18 Plasma coal gasification near Somerset,
PA with Browns @Steelers (I will go)
Teck
Nov 2 Toronto investor day (I will go)
Teck Nov
3-5 Andocollo and Relincho mine tours from
Copiapo, Chile (went to Andocollo in 2008)
US
Steel Nov 4 We will
co-host Gary Works tour
Chicago
companies Nov 3,5 We will co-host
visits to Arcellor Mittal, Packaging Corp -America,
Smurfit-Stone Container and/or others near Chicago
Faithfully,
John C. Tumazos, CFA
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Copyright © 2008 John Tumazos Very Independent Research,
LLC
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