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January 28, 2011
Dear Friend,
John Tumazos Very
Independent Research, LLC ranked first for the
performance of its investment recommendations in
2010 among the brokerage or research firms surveyed
by First Coverage Inc., which will be featured in
Barron's. We will receive two awards on February
16th at their cocktail reception. We appreciate
your support in permitting us to maintain our
standards, staffing and resources.
For any friends
who want to join us watching the Super Bowl, we will
be attending a Super Bowl party in the local church
hall at 80 Hillcrest Road in Holmdel near Garden
State Parkway exit 117 just off Holmdel Road. The
guys erect a huge TV screen on the stage, cater good
food, have gambling and alcohol and younger children
play soccer or basketball in the church gym if they
get bored. It is easy for me to reserve a couple
tables, and please let me know if you would like to
join us.
We increased our
long-term earnings estimates for Allegheny Tech
about 10%, using $1-$2 per lb higher titanium prices
and a slower silicon electrical steel decline, and
applied a higher 13 P/E to raise our price target to
$80 from $65, staying at Overweight. We lowered our
cost estimates for Packaging Corp. of America,
raising our price target to $35 from $29 and staying
at Overweight. We raised our aluminum price, other
parameters and incorporated the 49% equity stake in
the Mongolian copper-gold project into our Rio Tinto
model, raising our price target to $74 from $66 but
not enough to raise our Neutral rating. We continue
to incorporate business improvements of various
companies, and their prospective returns.
Faithfully,
John C. Tumazos,
CFA
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Copyright © 2008 John Tumazos Very Independent Research,
LLC
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