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September 8, 2011 Dear friend,
We expect base metals demand to be
stronger than GDP expectations, benefiting from Asian strength. For example,
we estimate a 3.6 mm unit or 5% gain in world auto sales to a 74 mm unit
record in 2011 and another 2 to 3 mm unit gain in 2012 even with slow
growth. After all, autos and housing in the U.S. and EU already are fairly
weak. Further, we already estimate lower prices for iron ore, lead, zinc and
uncoated free sheet in 2012, and we expect no few price gains > 10% with
those sole exceptions in precious metals.
We want to extend an invitation for anyone to join our Nevada 21-29 trip to approximately nine deposits or mines, starting in Elko at noon on the 21st and flying out of Reno the morning of the 29th to return. My son will cover the field trips after the Denver Gold Show, while I will return to the Arcelor Mittal Steel investor day September 23rd in NYC. Charles Tumazos will travel to Nevada September 21 to 29 for the organized group field trips of Barrick Gold, Coeur d'Alene Mines, Quaterra Resources and Entrée Gold and also to Meadow Bay Capital, Solitario Exploration & Royalty, Klondex Mines, Atna Resources and Paramount Gold and Silver. It will be very good if at least one person joins Charles just to help with the driving and directions. It will be his second trip to Nevada, and his stop at ABX and NEM at age 22 months really doesn't count. Best regards,
John C. Tumazos, CFA
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Copyright © 2008 John Tumazos Very Independent Research,
LLC
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