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Web Changes
This is where we'll announce the most recent
additions to our web site. If you've visited us before and want to know what's
changed, take a look here first.
Recent Media Coverage of
John Tumazos Very independent Research, LLC
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USS confirms Serbia sale, will record charge
www.AMM.com
by Michael Cowden
http://www.amm.com/Article/2970097/USS-confirms-Serbia-sale-will-record-charge.html
U.S. Steel’s facilities
in Serbia are surrounded by steelmaking assets in the Czech and
Slovak republics, Italy, Germany, Poland, Russia, Ukraine and
Turkey, said John Tumazos, analyst at Holmdel, N.J.-based Very
Independent Research LLC, noting that the location was a
challenge. "You could ship south to Greece, but Greece is dead."
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US Steel mum
on Serbia venture
Pittsburgh Post Gazette
by Len Boselovic
"I don't think Serbian politicians are better metallurgists than
U.S. Steel," said John C. Tumazos, a Holmdel, N.J., industry
analyst. "It appears the Serbian government had a hard time
swallowing the business decision to reduce output in the current
climate."
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Alcoa gives
positive aluminum outlook
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Aluminum price
dip may trigger buys
AMM.com by Suzy
Walte December 16, 2011
"Take Century (Aluminum
Co's) Ravenswood (smelter in West Virginia). This would
not be the perfect week to restart it, or to conclude a new
power agreement," John Tumazos, principal at Very Independent
Research LLC told AMM.
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Quadra Sale
suggest bearish outlook: analysts
AMM.com by Chris
Prentice December 15, 2011
http://www.amm.com/Article/2950065/Quadra-sale-suggests-bearish-outlook-analysts.html?ArticleId=2950065
Others agreed. John
Tumazos, analyst at Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent
Research LLC, said he was not surprised by the deal. "This is
probably a good deal, and analysts just don’t know it (yet),"
Tumazos told AMM. "The management (at Quadra) obviously
don’t believe the copper price is going to be as high as
analysts believe. Maybe they are a little nervous about Europe
and the U.S."
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Texas Rare
Earth to Present at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research
Metals & Mining Conference
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Val d'Or mine
shut down over safety
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Rio Tinto
selling aluminum assets in cost-cut move
October 18, 2011 by Suzy Walte
www.Amm.com
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US mart seen
unlikely to nix stainless extra
October 10, 2011 by Thorsten Schier
www.Amm.com
"In the past, when there were fixed prices,
it was during years of low or no nickel price volatility. In
periods of very high volatility, it’s an appropriate system,"
according to John Tumazos, principal of Very Independent
Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J.
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Aluminum
suppliers have upper hand for '12
September 6, 2011 by Suzy White
www.Amm.com
Very
Independent Research LLC’s John Tumazos is more optimistic. "We
don’t think countries doing badly in the world matter," he said,
predicting that global auto sales will break records of 74
million units or more this year.
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ATI Changing stainless surcharge
calculations
"In the existing system, the customer always
wins and the supplier always loses. In a rising (raw materials)
market the stainless steel supplier with a 60-day lag sees a lot of
orders, and then when the price falls the customers simply refuse to
purchase and wait until the decline stops," John Tumazos, principal
of Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J., said. "The most
equitable system would reduce the lag to overnight pricing."
http://www.amm.com/Article/2856803/ATI-changing-stainless-surcharge-calculations.html
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JOHN TUMAZOS, VERYINDEPENDENTRESEARCH.COM,
NEW JERSEY
"All four businesses did well. That's a bit
unusual for everything to do well. But all four segments did better
than any quarter last year, with alumina being almost twice the
average quarter of last year.
"Flat rolled could easily be squeezed by
rising ingot prices. So it was particularly good that it had its
best quarter in a while.
"Primary (aluminum) in March was better
than in December, and should improve much more. Ingot should be a
good bit better in the second quarter than the first, and alumina is
indexed to ingot. So the company should be happy in the outlook on
their conference call."
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VIP confab might legitimize ignored
miners: Wits, Revett
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Renco mill restart plan stirs market
concerns
http://www.amm.com/Article/2780008/Renco-mill-restart-plan-stirs-market-concerns.html
John Tumazos,
principal of Very
Independent Research
LLC, Holmdel, N.J.,
offered a similar
view, pointing out
that the flat-rolled
market has
strengthened, buoyed
by increased
production and
demand from the
automotive sector.
"I think it’s very
encouraging that
automotive sales
were up 27 percent
in February to 13.4
million units," he
said. "That (unit
figure) is still 20
percent below
pre-recession
levels. What you
have then is a
market that is
smaller against
capacity that is
increasing. It’s
(capacity from RG
Steel) a competing
presence against
capacity coming
online from
ThyssenKrupp and
others. It looks
like a
deconsolidation of
companies that were
put together in
2006, 2007 and
2008."
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ATI announces its president to take
over as chief executive
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ATI Ceo Hassey to
retire May 1
-
Deep Possibilities
John Tumazos, a
longtime metals
analyst who operates
John Tumazos Very
Independent
Research, notes
Xstrata
trades at a 10%
discount to its coal
and copper assets,
leaving its
fixed-asset
development
investments and
other mineral groups
essentially free.
Tumazos recently
raised his price
target on Xstrata to
$33 a share from
$28, based on a
discounted cash-flow
model. That would
represent a 50%
increase from the
$21.90 its shares
recently fetched in
New York. The shares
trade primarily in
London under the
ticker XTA.
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US steel exports forecast to rise on
weak dollar, demand surge
By Maria Guzzo, February 16, 2011John
Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent Research LLC,
Holmdel, N.J., told AMM the December pullback ma y
have been a
factor of higher prices.
"When domestic mills raise prices sky high,
imports rise and exports fall," he said. "So
December appeared to be beginning to show that
effect with a 100,000-ton increase in imports and a
100,000-ton decrease in exports."
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Instant view: Alcoa Q4 profits tops
Wall Street
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE7095VZ20110110?pageNumber=2
January 10, 2011
JOHN
TUMAZOS, PRESIDENT OF VERYINDEPENDENT RESEARCH IN
HOLMDEL, NEW JERSEY
"What really knocked my
socks off was when they said they're projecting 12
percent demand growth for 2011. I don't think
there's enough aluminum in the world..."
"In order to get a 12
percent growth rate in 2011, the world auto industry
would have to be very strong, and each region of the
world would have to be very strong. China would have
to have enough electricity to make aluminum and use
aluminum, and construction would need to recover in
various regions: stay strong in China, and rebound
in the U.S."
"The (beverage) cans are
never going to grow that much, unless somebody
starts drinking really hard somewhere in the world."
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USS, Kobe commit $400 M to Pro-Tec
By Corinna Petry
www.AMM.com December 2, 2010
John Tumazos, analyst of Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel,
N.J., said he expects U.S. Steel and Kobe to have, at the very least, "a
strong assurance from an important customer that they will pay them more
for high-quality heat treating. You don't spend $400 million on a wink
and a nod."
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Teck press release speaking on
November 9, 2010 at JTVIR Metals Conference
Press Release
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Klondex To Review Nevada High-Grade
Gold Program at Tumazos Metals & Mining Conference Wednesday, November
10th at 2:20 P.M.
Press Release
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Letter to the Editor: SDCO outlay much
ado about nothing
www.AMM.com Hans Mueller July 26, 2010Brebach and John Tumazos (senior analyst at Very Independent Research
LLC) have pointed out why John Correnti's SDCO project is too
insignificant to deserve congressional attention
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Iron ore surcharge said failing to
gain traction
www.AMM.com By Scott Robertson July 16,
2010
Analyst John Tumazos of Very Independent Research said that AK has a
history of "tedious negotiations with GM. It has happened that way
many times. U.S. Steel and (Arcelor)Mittal, for whatever reason,
have not had that problem." Tumazos believes that surcharges,
first floated in stainless steel and then instituted by carbon steel
mini-mills in April 2004 to deal with fluctuating scrap costs,
eventually will be a thing of the past.
"It is possible that for both good and bad reasons surcharges
either confuse or eventually lose credibility with customers," he
said. "The concept of surcharges has been wearing itself out with
customers." He referred to remarks by an executive of Bloomfield,
Colo.-based packaging company Ball Corp., who once referred to
aluminum can makers as "that thin strip of meat" between aluminum
companies and consumers.
"Similarly, I believe the steel business is maybe a slightly
thicker strip of meat between the three iron ore producers and the
large auto companies like Toyota and GM," Tumazos said. "If the ore
and coal companies go to quarterly contracts and the mini-mills are
adjusting monthly for scrap, the integrated mills will need to not
have long-term fixed contracts like they had in the '80s."
They'll need to adjust quickly, whether they call it a surcharge
or not, he said. "In fact, it might be better not to call it a
surcharge, because such a word has worn out the patience of
customers."
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Alcoa
Reuters.com July 12, 2010
John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC
"The results were a little better
than expected. Each of their four reporting segments did well. It
appeared in particular that their capital spending and
cost-reduction programs were working smoothly. None of the four
segments dropped the ball."
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Letter to the Editor: SOCO will create
American jobs, boost US tax revenues
www.amm.com by John C Tumazos July 7, 2010
full report
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Cliffs buying met coal assets in West
Virginia
www.amm.com by Maria Guzzo July 6, 2010
John Tumazos, partner at Very Independent Research LLC,
Holmdel, N.J., said what Cliffs has doing in acquiring chromite ores in
Canada is "brilliant," but he is less excited about the INR purchase.
"It's a complicated set of variables," he said, including a mix of met
and thermal coal, the relatively small current coal production and the
ratio of production to reserves. "But there may be more here th an meets
the eye."
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Latrobe Specialty Steel said mulling
IPO within next 2 years
www.amm.com by Maria Guzzo June 24, 2010
John Tumazos, partner at Very Independent Research LLC,
Holmdel, N.J., said Latrobe is a smaller company than Carpenter
Technology Corp., Haynes International Inc. or Allegheny Technologies
Inc., all of which also produce specialty metals. "Trading near $36
(per share on Thursday), Carpenter Technologies is well below its peak
2007 valuation of $75 per share or mid-range 2006-07 values near $60 per
share," he said. "Probably Latrobe is worth something similarly less
than peak values similar to Carpenter Technologies."
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Noranda slashes IPO share price on
weak aluminum market
www.amm.com by Anne Riley May 13, 2010
The decision by Noranda's majority owner, New York-based
investment fund Apollo Management LP, to reduce the size of the offering
may have done the stock a disservice, said John Tumazos, analyst with
Very Independent Research LLC."It doesn't communicate vitality that
they cut the price 44 percent," he said. "It's a sign of weakness and it
suggests some discomfort, like they don't have confidence in their
electricity supplier or maybe they don't like the bauxite and alumina
business that Century (Aluminum Corp.) paid them $10 million to take.
It's not a good sign when your partner pays you $10 million to take (an
asset). My hunch is that something in this transaction gives Apollo
indigestion."
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Apollo unlikely to face antitrust
hurdles
www.amm.com by Anne Riley May 7, 2010John Tumazos, analyst
at Very Independent Research LLC, agreed that as long as Apollo isn't
Aleris' primary owner, there shouldn't be a problem. "A reasonable
defense that Apollo could mount is that Apollo no longer controls Aleris
after the bankruptcy filing, that Aleris is controlled by a bankruptcy
judge or at least reports to one, and that the ownership of Aleris is
transferred to the creditors. So the antitrust objection is not a strong
one," he said. "Apollo is part of the pie but they're no longer the
whole pie."
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Noranda public
offering doubt as stock market tumbles
www.amm.com
By Anne Riley May 7, 2010
John Tumazos,
analyst with Very Independent Research LLC, agreed
that the market is no longer prime for a Noranda
IPO. "The financial markets are in a collapse led by
cyclical stocks," he said. "Let's just say (the
number of possible) investors are going down 3
percent a day because the stock market is going down
3 percent a day. I would expect that the majority of
their appointments are getting canceled."
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Analysts: Slumping demand why Franklin
paper mill closing
www.istockanalyst.com by Philip Walzer April 11 ,2010John Tumazos, who runs Very Independent Research in New Jersey, isn't so
sure.
"I don't think that 'hope' was a business alternative," Tumazos said
last week, "but I think there's a choice."
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Apollo seen as main contender for
Alcan rolled assets
www.amm.com By David Brooks April 16,
2010
John Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent Research
LLC, raised similar concerns. "I don't think the
business is particularly flush with cash to go out
and make a big acquisition," he previously told AMM.
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Vale Inco strike could linger despite
union pact, higher nickel prices
www.amm.com By Tom Jennemann April 9,
2010
John Tumazos, analyst at Very
Independent Research LLC, said the office staff
labor deal won't impact the position of production
workers.
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Alcoa to demolish
two idled aluminum smelters in US
www.amm.com By Anne Riley April 6, 2010
"Electricity and fuel are
cyclical, so when the (smelters) were idled the
company may have held out a hope that a better
opportunity could occur to bring them back,"
according to John Tumazos, analyst at Very
Independent Research LLC. "I would imagine .?.?.
that they have been hoping that circumstances would
change, which hasn't transpired."
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Novelis is free to enter aerospace, but will it?
www.amm.com By Anne Riley March 8, 2010
"There
have been over-expansions," John Tumazos, analyst at
Very Independent Research LLC, said.
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SSAB scales down plant for Alabama
www.amm.com By Corinna Petry February 11, 2010
John Tumazos, president of
Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J., said
the classic application for QT plate is to transmit
natural gas from Alaska and Canada to the lower 48
states."Because of the natural gas surplus in the
U.S. and the huge reserves found in (oil shale
fields in) West Virginia, New York, Penn sylvania,
Texas, Oklahoma and Louisiana, there is a chance
that these (trans-Canadian) pipelines don't get
built or not as quickly," he said. In addition,
electricity use in the United States last year "was
4.7 percent less than in 2007, so the use of natural
gas and coal for power generation has diminished."
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Instant View: Alcoa reports
narrower loss
www.reuters.com
Monday Jan 11, 2010
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE60A54O20100111
JOHN
TUMAZOS, PRESIDENT, VERYINDEPENDENTRESEARCH.COM
"It was a bit surprising that
they broke even excluding the 28-cent charges. They
say they had special charges, and if you take that
out they nearly broke even including discontinued
operations.
"It appears that costs rose
faster than prices. Or that some of the cost gains
in the first half of 2009 were due to exogenous
factors like currency shifts, lower energy prices,
lower metal prices and now some of those exogenous
factors are going against them while the metal price
is going for them."
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Update 3- Alcoa misses
street estimate shares fall
Monday Jan 11, 2010 by Steve James
www.reuters.com
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN1115520120100112
"It
appears that costs rose faster than prices," said
John Tumazos, president of
veryindependentresearch.com.
"Or that some of the cost
gains in the first half of 2009 were due to
exogenous factors like currency shifts, lower energy
prices, lower metal prices and now some of those
exogenous factors are going against them while the
metal price is going (up) for them."
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Thompson Creek raises cost
estimates for Endako
AMM.com by Anne Riley December 7, 2009
John Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent
Research LLC, said it was unlikely that Sojitz would pull out of the
project.
"Sojitz just contributed C$180 million ($170.9
million) to buy 25 percent of the Gibraltar mine from Taseko Mines
(Ltd.), so I'm assuming that Sojitz knows the Endako expansion was
contemplated and is prepared for it. I don't think Sojitz is a risk," he
said. Sojitz bought the stake in the Gibraltar copper and molybdenum
mine last week
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Century to restart
construction of Iceland smelter
AMM.com November 19, 2009
NEW YORK -- Century Aluminum Co. is set to
restart construction at its greenfield smelter in Helguvik, Iceland, in
the spring of 2010 and is targeting first production by 2012, a top
executive said.
Work at the Helguvik smelter site was
effectively put on hold late last year due to tightening credit markets,
low aluminum prices and the collapse of the Icelandic economy.
Conditions in the credit and aluminum markets have since improved and
Century is prepared to proceed with full-scale construction, Mike Bless,
chief financial officer, said at a Metals and Mining investor conference
in New York hosted by Knight Capital Group Inc. and John Tumazos Very
Independent Research LLC, according to a Webcast of the event.
Monterey, Calif.-based Century plans to build
the smelter in four phases of 90,000 tonnes each, for a final annual
capacity of 360,000 tonnes. The first phase will cost about $600
million, according to Bless.
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Aluminum price rally may
drive Century to restart Ravenswood
AMM.com by Anne Riley October 26, 2009
Independent analyst John Tumazos said he found the ta lk of a
Ravenswood restart surprising. "I would have thought it more logical to
restart the idled line at Hawesville (Ky.) if there were to be a first
step at Century," he said.
Although today's lower energy input prices and possible union
concessions could mean an improvement in Ravenswood's costs, the plant
might bring in the most money for Century if it were to be sold, Tumazos
said.
"The Ravenswood plant is a much more formidable asset empty and cold
without a work force. If they let it sit five years and sold it to some
new company with no obligation to a labor contract and start fresh, it
would in my opinion be the fullest value of the asset," he said,
estimating that the plant, "sold cold," could bring in some $300
million.
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Noranda profitable as output
climbs
AMM.com by Anne Riley October 26, 2009
Another challenge in store for Noranda is the profusion of new
aluminum capacity expected to enter the global market next year, sources
said. According to John Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent Research
LLC, the world could see some 10 percent more smelter output, or an
increase of some 1.5 million tonnes, in 2010, which could put some
strain on higher-cost Western producers.
"If you get subs tantial restarts in the U.S. and Europe, where
production has been reduced, then you need a higher threshold, more than
10-percent demand growth, to keep inventories even, just even," Tumazos
said.
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Ohio politician hints at
interest in some Severstal NA plants
AMM.com by Scott Robertson October 23, 2009
Independent analyst John Tumazos is one who
believes there is potential in Severstal's North American operations,
perhaps with the conversion of some facilities into merchant pig iron
producers.
In a recent research note, he characterized
reports by AMM and others claiming "sales book" offers for the Russian
steelmaker's five North American mills as "sensational," adding that
"some commentary appears to exaggerate (the) potential demise" of
Severstal.
"We believe Severstal has numerous fine
financing alternatives should the current recession grow worse,
including (a) selling more public common stock in the Severstal parent,
(b) an IPO (initial public offering) of Severstal Resources, (c) an IPO
of Severstal North America, (d) selected asset sales or (e) a hybrid
format of the four U.S. integrated plants between sheet and merchant pig
iron strategies," Tumazos said, estimating that Severstal's 8 million
tons of pig iron capacity, 4 million tons of coatings capacity, its
Columbus, Miss., electric furnace mill and coal, coke and corrugating
are worth $5 billion.
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Despite Positive results
Alcoa faces challenges
AMM.com by Anne Riley 10/8/2009
John Tumazos an analyst at Very Independent
Research LLC, also pointed to currency fluctuations as a key factor for
Alcoa. "Alcoa's break-even point appeared to rise 3 to 5 cents a pound
in the third quarter due to the appreciation of their production cost
currencies," he said. "I think Alcoa is doing everything diligent and
wonderful but they can't control the Australian dollar," which has shot
up recently against the greenback.
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What Stimulus?
American Metal Market by
Maria Guzzo October 2009
John Tumazos an analyst with Very Independent Research LLC,
Holmdel, NJ, was even less optimistic that ARRA will benefit the steal
industry. "Any expectation of a substantial impact on particular steel
shapes or products probably won't be fulfilled," he said. "I think most
of these initiatives are going to get crowded out by various social
welfare programs and the need to pay schoolteachers, policemen, firemen,
and government officials," Tumazos said.
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Metals complex holds
aluminum back
AMM.com by Anne Riley September 29, 2009
"There was never a shortage of aluminum this
decade," said John Tumazos, an analyst at Very Independent Research LLC.
"There always was a large amount in LME warehouses, where copper,
nickel, lead and zinc almost fell to zero."
Granted, some of that metal is locked up in
financing deals-as much as 90 percent, according to some accounts-but
regardless, "the aluminum exists," Tumazos said. "It surprises me that
people are so cavalier to how quickly 5 million tonnes will disappear."
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Always on the Mend
American Metal Market August/September 2009 issue byTom Jennemann
John Tumazos, an analyst at Very Independent Research LLc, told AMM that
extruders likely will have only about two thirds of the business they
had before the industry's downturn.
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From the Associated Press July 8,
2009
John Tumazos, an industry
analyst, said of Alcoa's latest results: "They did good."
The company lost considerably
less money on ventures in China and Russia than in the past, and it
gathered contributions from operations in Iceland and Norway, he
said. Alcoa should have a positive cash flow in the third quarter,
Tumazos added.
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TK may cancel plans to melt
stainless in Ala.
www.AMM.com by Maria Guzzo July 8, 2009
"The latter case would be great news for
ATI, AK or Acerinox (NAS)," John Tumazos, analyst with Very Independent
Research, Holmdel, N.J., said. "In this scenario, ThyssenKrupp would be
content to operate Mexinox in San Luis Potosi (Mexico) as a standalone
unit, accepting stainless hot-rolled coil from Europe, without any U.S.
link."
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Steelmakers face battle as
antitrust suit proceeds
www.AMM.com by Maria Guzzo June 16,
2009
Independent steel industry analyst John
Tumazos also expects the steel litigation to take years, noting that the
steel case resembles one in the container board industry where similar
coincidental production cuts were made
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Steel output rise sign of
life, but will it last?
www.AMM.com by Scott Robertson June 12,
2009
John Tumazos, analyst at Independent
Research LLC, said several factors appear to be in play in pushing
utilization rates higher. He cited the recent upward move in crude oil
prices to again breach $70 per barrel, a move that should spark
increased oil drilling activity. And steel inventories in general have
been reduced over the past several months, leading service center
customers to increase orders slightly in recent weeks, he said.
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US aluminum output dips
further in May
www.AMM.com by
June 10, 2009
But U.S. aluminum output
still has further to fall, according to analyst John Tumazos of Very
Independent Research LLC. "A 37-percent cut in U.S. aluminum output is a
deep, deep cut, but autos and housing are down even more. They're going
to have to cut further unless all of a sudden auto sales and housing
figures rebound," he said, noting that such a turnaround is quite
unlikely in the near-term.
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Cliff's buffered from pellet tag drop: analysts
www.AMM.com by
Mick Bowen June 10, 2009
John Tumazos, analyst at
Very Independent Research LLC, pointed out the two steel markets that
primarily use pellets-North America and Europe-are also the two markets
where output was hardest hit by the economic crisis. In the United
States, for exampl e, the capability utilization rate averaged 47.1
percent last week compared with 91.1 percent in the corresponding week
last year, according to numbers from the American Iron and Steel
Institute (AMM, June 10).
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Lower demand imperils
domestic steelmakers: Analysts predict permanent closure of some U.S.
mills
http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/09156/975244-28.stm
The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette by Len Boselovic June 5, 2009
Analyst John C. Tumazos, of Very Independent
Research in Holmdel, N.J., forecasts U.S. mills will ship 57 million
tons this year, down from 98 million last year and 106 million in
2007.
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China Probes Imports of U.S.
Steel
http://online.wsj.com/search?KEYWORDS=Tumazos&mod=DNH_S By
Kris Maher June 2, 2009
"I'm assuming that the prices into China
were new sales at spot prices that were escalating," said John Tumazos,
a metals analyst who heads Very Independent Research LLC.
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"Buy American" among factors limiting
imports
www.AMM.com by
Corinna Petry May 29, 2009
"There is very low domestic demand for steel.
Second, when the demand transitions to stimulus programs, they will be
'Buy America' (orders) and not imported. Third, domestic prices have
been falling," independent steel industry analyst John Tumazos said. "I
believe that high domestic steel prices cause imports and, as domestic
mill operating rates remained in the low 40 (percent range), prices fell
enough to discourage imports."
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Cliffs' iron ore contract prices seen falling 10%
AMM.com by
Mick Bowen May 29, 2009
According to John Tumazos,
a steel analyst at John Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC, the
structure of the local steel market and its recent woes mean the
international negoti ations will have little direct impact on North
America.
-
US aluminum demand still
feeling for bottom
www.AMM.com by Tom Jennemann May 12,
2009
John Tumazos, an analyst at Very Independent Research LLC, said
that aluminum demand is about the same as it was last month. "The
packaging portion of the aluminum market is stable but the auto market
was down 34 percent in April and construction activity is poor," Tumazos
said. "Also, virtually no money has flowed from the federal programs.
It's sad that the exchange inventories rise 10,000 to 20,000 tonnes
every day. Aluminum companies need to cut production more,
unfortunately."
-
Credit pains to linger; plan well, metals
told
www.AMM.com by Maria Guzzo May 8,
2009
Independent steel industry analyst John Tumazos
said he was impressed that U.S. Steel raised twice as much as originally
intended, and they did it in 24 hours.
"Commercial banks are still sucking their
thumbs, but stock market money is coming off the sidelines," he said.
"Money can be obtained from public or private stock and bond sales. But
the commercial lending area from banks is still difficult."
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Analysts applaud Nyrstar's
Tenn. buy
AMM.com by
Mick Bowen May 6, 2009
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Steel distributor Certified set to go
solar at N.J. plant
www.AMM.com by Corinna Petry May 5,
2009
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ISRI CONVENTION: Commodities boom masked
aluminum glut, Tumazos says
AMM.com by Michael MArley May 1, 2009
Tumazos, of John Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC, criticized
aluminum producers outside of China, saying they produced more metal
than Western markets needed. "The aluminum producers misjudged demand
and built capacity to serve phantom buyers," he said.
-
ArcelorMittal tries EU price freeze,
expects stable May
Platts Steel Markets Daily by Julien Hall with
Joe Innace in New York April 16, 2009
“This is humorous,” said analyst John
Tumazos of Very Independent Research. “A
supplier ‘price freeze’ in a very strong market,
such as one to three years ago, is
enforceable as it would be a form of ‘self
restraint,’ he wrote in an e-mail to Platts.
“A supplier ‘price freeze’ with world steel
output down about 23%, or nearly 50% outside
China, is a little bit like trying to stop
the flow of Niagara Falls,” he quipped.
-
Aluminum market continues to falter
amm.com by Tom Jennemann April 14, 2009
But the month-on-month increase is somewhat deceptive as it's
based on a calendar month and isn't adjusted for the actual
number of working days. It is also the normal seasonal pattern
for demand to improve sequentially as winter ends, according to
John Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent Research LLC.
-
Steel import, export price indicies drop
Amm.com by Corinna Petry April 9, 2009
"Imports and exports of everything, not just steel, are falling
worldwide because there is less need for trade in a recession as
countries are more self reliant and less willing to buy," said
independent metals industry analyst John Tumazos. "High prices cause
imports, (but domestic steel prices have fallen to around $400 per ton
for many products) so now steel imports are relatively low-1.5 million
tons per month or less-because domestic producers have cut prices."
-
-
Smaller nickel miners facing an uphill
road
By Michael Cowden October
28, 2008
http://amm.com/2008-10-28__18-37-45.html
Independent analyst John Tumazos also doubted there would be a wave of
consolidation, but said smaller producers could become insolvent and
eventually fail. "Nobody in the nickel business makes money at
$4.50 a pound," he said.
-
Nickel premiums steady despite lull
By Michael Cowden October
24, 2008
http://amm.com/2008-10-24__17-15-45.html
Independent mining analyst John Tumazos said current prices don't
justify energy and chipping costs in many cases. however, LME
stockpiles amount to less than 3 percent of world usage, he pointed out,
adding that many stainless steelmakers have been destocking since the
second half of 2006.
-
NY group is kicking tires at former
McLouth Steel
By Michael Cowden October
16, 2008
http://amm.com/2008-10-16__17-44-48.html
Still, despite all the economic gloom and doom,
the site's infrastructure and potentially generous government incentives
could make restarting the former mill a good idea, independent industry
analyst John Tumazos said.
-
Delay in Rio asset sale to bolster BHP
bid
By Tom Jennemann October
15, 2008
http://www.amm.com/2008-10-15__18-31-08.html
But not everyone sees the divestment delay as a
negative for the Anglo-Australian mining giant. "The drop in oil
prices almost cuts resin feedstock costs in half. Whatever the
packaging business was worth on July 3 as oil peaked, it's probably
worth 25 percent more today because their profit margins should be much
larger because the squeezes are alleviated," said independent metals
analyst John tumazos. "Delaying the sale because of finanical
markets could be clever and a sign of strength and not weakness,
particularly as it relates to the packaging (unit)."
-
Analysts mixed on financial crisis impact
on steel M&As
By Maria Guzzo October 7,
2008
http://www.amm.com/2008-10-07__10-38-35.html
Independent steel analyst John Tumazos also is
pessimistic about more mergers and acquisitions occurring anytime soon.
"Steelmakers just got kicked out of 'paradise'," he said, noting that
acquisitions will be a lower priority going forward.
-
Surma, Mital optimistic on M&As;
investors not
By Maria Guzzo October 7,
2008
http://www.amm.com/stories/story.asp?file=/2008-10-07__16-48-14.xml
Independent steel analyst John Tumazos also is
pessimistic about more mergers and acquisitions occurring anytime soon.
"Steelmakers just got kicked out of 'paradise'," he said, noting that
acquisitions will be a lower priority going forward.
-
-
SDI mulling flat-roll mill, may target
auto: Busse
By Scott Robertson
September 15, 2008
http://www.amm.com/2008-09-15__17-41-50.html
"SDI earns slightly better margins and returns
than its competitors," John Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent
Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J., said. "there is always room for the
best player," he added.
-
Labor deal "expensive" for U.S. Steel
By Scott Robertson August
25, 2008
http://amm.com/2008-08-25__19-29-35.html
John Tumazos analyst at Very Independent
Research, Holmdel, N.J. said investors may be calculating that growth in
other steel production is about to slow due to a drop in global demand.
there is some evidence that tightness in the market for steelmaking
could be easing, he said.
-
USW-ArcelorMittal
talks halt; strike said unlikely
By Maria Guzzo Aug 11, 2008
http://amm.com/2008-08-11__19-49-46.html
The cost of steel these days could also impact market movements, John
Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J. said.
-
SeverCorr
shift in scrap mix a "natural" process
By Michael Cowden August 6,
2008
http://amm.com/2008-08-06__19-14-33.html
No. 1 bundles and No. 1 busheling prices currently stand at a
premium to other grades of steel scrap in the United States and steel
mills could be using other grades to avoid the high tags, according to
John Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J.
-
ArcelorMittal said eyeing Alpha bid trumping Cliffs
By Maria Guzzo August 1,
2008
http://amm.com/stories.asp?file=/2008-08-01__21-00-28.xml
"ArcelorMittal has expressed a goal to be more self-sufficient in
metallurgical coal and iron ore," John Tumazos, an analyst with Very
Independent Research, LLC, Holmdel, N.J. said. "It may be that
Mittal considers Alpha to be much more attractive than the typical met
coal opportunity around the globe.
-
Teck's $13.8B deal to buy Fording Feeds
M&A fever
By Maria Guzzo July 29,
2008 American Metal Market
http://amm.com/2008-07-29__19-35-57.html
Steelmakers worldwide will be largely unaffected because the existing
combination of ownership of supply and management will be maintained,
John Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J.
said.
-
Cliffs risks going from hunter to buyout
target
By Maria Guzzo July 25,
2008 American Metal Market
http://amm.com/stories.asp?file=/2008-07-25__20-24-08.xml
Analyst John Tumazos of John Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC,
Holmdel, N.J. said he, too, understands Harbinger's actions.
"Shareholders own pieces of paper and sometimes they just assume the
piece of paper is going to be the same," he said. "It's always
possible investors at Harbinger thought they were buying mostly into
iron ore and weren't expecting $10 billion worth of coal."
-
Mine
start-ups might be least of nickel's worries
By Darcy Keith July 25, 2008 American Metal
Market
http://amm.com/2008-07-25__20-25-14.html
"There are a number of
places around the world where the existing production should not be
taken for granted," said analyst John Tumazos of John Tumazos Very
Independent Research, LLC.
-
-
Correnti Departs in Severcorr Reshuffle
Febuary 2008 edition of American Metal market
steel industry analyst John Tumazos said the move
raised several questions. "There's more that we don't know than we
do know," he said. "We would like to think that everyone would be
fairly rewarded."
-
-
HudBay dives
into nickel via Skye buy
By Darcy Keith June 24, 2008
http://amm.com/2008-06-24__21-39-44.html
Fenix contains proven and probable reserves of
41.4 million tonnes of ore grading 1.63-percent nickel, which, according
to John Tumazos of Very independent Research, LLC, represents two to
three years of world consumption. "The deposit is massive. I think
the offer is low and is favorable to HudBay and a little light to Skye.?
Misquote: "proven and probable reserves of
41.4 million"
Correction: 11 billion lb of ni resources or 5
mmt contained NI resources.
-
Esmark smells
profit, says Severstal offer falls short
By Michael Cowden, American Metal Market
http://amm.com/2008-06-12__19-42-34.html
The primary concern of Esmark's board should be
finding the best deal for shareholders and making sure "the $17 or $19 check
clears," analyst John Tumazos of Very Independent Research LLc, Holmdel,
N.J. said.
-
Vale sparks
takeover talk with $15B Share offering
By Roberta Pregnaca, American Metal Market
http://amm.com/2008-06-10__19-33-15.html
Alcoa has more downstream exposure and might not be
such a good fit with Vale's core competence, according to analyst John
Tumazos, owner of Very independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J.
-
Galway seeks
steel partner for N.M. mine
By Sean Barry, American Metal Market
http://amm.com/2008-06-05__19-58-37.html
"It's a big-time discovery and my job is to figure
out the best way to maximize the value of this project," Tumazos said.
"we're looking at possibly bringing in a steel company as a partner similar
to what General Moly Inc. has done. We're also looking at bringing in
financial partners."
-
Severstal's
Esmark bid might be hard to beat
By Scott Robertson, American Metal Market
http://amm.com/2008-05-30__20-03-28.html
"If Franklin is backing Severstal, then it's a done
deal," said John Tumazos, analyst at john Tumazos Very Independent Research,
Holmdel N.J. "Presumably, Franklin is a knowledgeable shareholder as a
large institution. If they are backing Severstal that should get it
done."
-
GM truck, SUV
cutbacks could trickle upstream
By Michael Cowden, American Metal Market
http://amm.com/2008-04-29__20-03-26.html
The real problem for the steel industry is not
declining auto sales, but supply constraints of raw materials such as iron
ore and metallurgical coal, according to john Tumazos of John Tumazos Very
Independent Research, LLC Holmdel, NJ.
-
Esmark deal pales next to old W-P bid
By Scott Paterson, American Metal market
http://amm.com/com/2008-05-01__15-47-28.html
"The market got better, but
(Wheeling-Pittsburgh's) operations got worse," analyst John Tumazos
said. "The problem with comparing this offer to CSN's is that things
change over time. Wheeling-Pitt installed the electric-arc furnace
(at Mingo Junction, Ohio) and it obviously is not working properly based
on their financial numbers. But even forgetting those numbers,
it's better to sell early. CSN would have brought in slabs that would
have bypassed those molten steel operations."
-
-
Nucor loses appeal in libel suit
gsrg - nucor loses appeal vs Tumazos 4-24-08.pdf
-
Nucor Loses Bid
to Reinstate Libel Lawsuit Against Prudential
by Linda Sandler (Bloomberg)
Full Story
-
-
ATI Stock
Climbs on Rumors about takeover by U.S. Steel
John Tumazos, analyst at John Tumazos Very Independent
Research LLC, Holmdel N.J. said he did not see how either company would
benefit from such a combination. He said he didn't believe U.S. Steel
would but ATI as U.S. Steel is seeking "bolt-on" extensions with large
synergies to existing U.S. iron ore, sheet, and tube or East European sheet
units.
American Metal Market, by Maria
Guzzo: April 7, 2008
http://amm.com/wrappers/story.asp?file=/2008-04-07__18-51-50.xml
-
-
Duluth
Metals to present at JTVIR Metals Conference March 27, 2008
http://www.duluthmetals.com/s/NewsReleases.asp
-
Taseko
Mines to present at JTVIR Metals Conference
http://www.tasekomines.com/tko/newsreleases.asp?reportid=292166
-
Dofasco sues
for iron ore mine
By Naomi Powell The Hamilton Spectator March 14, 2008 page A16
Dofasco.doc
-
Tumazos Sees Global Economic `Boom' on Low Rates
Mar. 11 (Bloomberg) -- John Tumazos, founder of
Very Independent Research LLC, spoke yesterday with Bloomberg's Tom Keene
from Holmdel, New Jersey, about commodity prices, the gold market and the
global economy.
weblink
-
Interview with
John Tumazos
htttp://www.wsw.com/webcast/vir/video.html
-
Hot-roll band
prices surge to new highs: Benchmarker
American metal Market by Maria
Guzzo
http://amm.com/2008-02-13__19-25-29.html
John Tumazos, analyst at John Tumazos Very
Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J., said the price hikes "reflect
December/ January scrap cost increases, which mills are now trying to
recover with a time lag after the fact."
-
Century Aluminum
Sunday (Charleston, WV)
Gazette-Mail Sunday Feb 3, 2008 "Century has to face the numbers" By George
Hohman
Chief Operating Officer Wayne Hale said in September
that alumina accounts for 37 percent of Ravenswood's costs; electricity,
26 percent; labor, 16 percent; carbon, 8 percent; and other raw
materials, 12 percent. John tumazos, an independent analyst, said
Ravenswood's expenses are in the ballpark when compared to others.
-
U.S. Steel to
raise production at Stelco facilities
American Metal Markets
http://amm.com/2008-02-04__15-44-12.html By Michael Cowden
One industry analyst said the depreciating dollar was a concern. It is
unclear whether U.S. Steel will earn suitable returns from Stelco unless
exchange rates change, according to John C. Tumazos, head of John Tumazos
Very independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J.
-
SSAB said in
talks to divest Ipsco's tubular operations
American Metal Market by Michael
Cowden
http://amm.com/wrappers/story.asp?file=/2008-02-04__20-42-29.xml Feb 4,
2008.
"The price SSAB paid was very generous," said John
Tumazos of John Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, NJ.
And SSAB might be "very Happy" to exit a product line or two in order to
reduce debt and capital employed, especially in the face of turmoil in
the credit markets, he said.
-
Alcoa awaits BHP
decision as Rio offer deadline looms
American Metal Market by Mathew Lerner
http://amm.com/2008-02-05__19-02-19.html Feb 5, 2008
Alcoa could
be taking a two-track approach, according to John C. Tumazos of John Tumazos
Very Independent Research, LC, Holmdel, NJ. Alcoa owns only 9 percent
of the stake it purchased with Chinalco, meaning it directly controls no
more than 1 percent of Rio stock. Alcoa might swap that stake for a
specific asset or flip it later at a profit, he said.
-
USS reportedly
eyeing Bulgaria mill acquisition
American Metal Market
http://amm.com/2008-01-30__20-15-40.html By Maria Guzzo
"It makes sense to integrate it with Belgrade and Kosice into their
system. Their advantage is defined as how efficient they could
make them all." said John Tumazos, head of Very independent Research
LLC, Holmdel, N.J., who added that although he had heard nothing about
the negotiations, such a purchase could be beneficial to the
Pittsburgh-based steelmaker.
-
Hot-roll band on
strong drive in US, world export markets
American Metal Markets
http://amm.com/2008-01-30__20-12-53.html By Michael Cowden
"Currency fluctuations could be partially accountable for the difference
between U.S. and Chinese prices, as the U.S. dollar continues to weaken
while the Chinese Yuan strengthens, said John Tumazos, analyst at John
Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J. And, of course,
low customer inventories are encouraging North American steelmakers to
increase domestic market prices, he added.
Tumazos speculated that world export prices might be rising as U.S. mills
divert supplies away from export markets to long-standing distributor
customers- a move that might at first glance appear counterintuitive, given
strong prices abroad. "You can sell to the person you get the highest
bid from, or you can go out and serve the customer who orders from every
month," he said.
-
Duluth Complex
projects move forward
Article from The Northern Miner, Volume 93 Number
47, Jan 14-20, 2008
"In a third-quarter conference call, Teck chief executive Don Lindsay
told research analyst John Tumazos that there was "nothing material to
report" on Mesaba, and that there "won't be for some time.""
-
Alcoa's Stint
in the Minor Leagues
Tuesday January 29, 2008 edition of the Wall
Street Journal page C1
By 2015, the Middle East smelters could
produce aluminum 25% cheaper than Alcoa does now, says John Tumazos, who
runs a metals-research concern called Very Independent Research. "It
will be very difficult for Alcoa to compete," he says.
-
Steel mat feel
minimal recession fallout
Article from American Metal Market January 22,
2008
http://amm.com/2008-01-22__19-22-39.html
"The outlook for metal industries in general remains strong, according to
John Tumazos, founder of John Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC,
Holmdel, NJ. Companies such as U.S. Steel and Nucor could even use
the market downturn as an opportunity to buy back shares at bargain prices."
-
Anglo American May
Buy Brazil Projects
Friday January 18, 2008 edition of the Wall Street
Journal page 9
"It is a coup that Anglo American is doing this deal," said John Tumazos,
an analyst with Very Independent Research, LLC. "All the iron-ore
producers of the world envy Vale's spectacular resources in Brazil and would
like to have something like it" He said the price is justified, given
the entry into a rich market
-
SeverCorr
squeeze-out aimed at four top execs.
Article from American Metals
Markets.
SeverCorr squeeze-out aimed at
four top execs
2007 news articles |
