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Recent Media Coverage of John Tumazos Very independent Research, LLC

  • U.S. Steel shares jump on turnaround strategy
    September 18, 2014
    Trib Live Business
    By John D. Oravecz

    http://triblive.com/business/headlines/6812511-74/steel-company-million#axzz3DfVuwgk4
     

    “They don't seem to want to tolerate anything that is losing money. It turns out that Canada was losing quite a bit, $25 million a month,” said John Tumazos of Tumazos Very Independent Research of Holmdel, N.J.
     

    “They are saying small is beautiful,” Tumazos said. “They are scrutinizing everything,” and other plants they might sell include U.S. Steel Europe, now consisting only of a plant in Kosice, Slovakia, which must purchase its raw materials at more expensive prices. “Having gotten rid of Serbia and Canada, the headquarters has to become smaller because there isn't as much to manage. And they have been doing that,” said Tumazos. “But they might pause for a while. I don't think they will be killing a major plant every quarter or two.”
     

  • Alcoa shifts retirees to private health insurance exchanges
    September 8, 2014
    Trib Live Business
    By Alex Nixon

    http://triblive.com/business/headlines/6758936-74/health-alcoa-private#axzz3CoaihRiE
     

    Alcoa, which is based in New York but has an operations center in Pittsburgh, may have been able to provide rich employee benefits in the past, but it is facing serious competitive pressure today, said John Tumazos of Tumazos Very Independent Research in Holmdel, N.J.
     

    There is an oversupply of aluminum caused by increasing Chinese production, which has depressed the metal's price, he said. Alcoa has responded by closing smelters across the nation and trimming expenses.
     

    “They're not the pre-eminent company they once were,” he said. “They haven't taken the controls off of cost. They're still attacking any and every cost.”
     

  • U.S. Steel's 2Q loss beats analysts' estimates
    July 29, 2014
    Trib Live Business
    By John D. Oravecz

    http://triblive.com/business/headlines/6524660-74/million-loss-cents#axzz38tnZnyxQ

    “The loss of 12 cents was a great achievement in view of the mishap at the Great Lakes (plant in Ecorse, Mich.) and the iron ore delivery delays due to Lake Superior's prolonged ice blocks,” said John Tumazos of Tumazos Very Independent Research of Holmdel, N.J.

     
  • Steel said still on top despite Toyota shift
    July 17, 2014
    American Metal Market, Volume 122, Number 29-4
    By Thorsten Schier

    "In a way it's a bigger victory for aluminum to access Toyota because Toyota is a leader in fuel economy by hybrid and Toyota separately is a leader in gains in fuel economy by engineering and conventional technologies," John Tumazos, principal of Holmdel, N.J.-based John Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC, told AMM, adding that there are "enormous opportunities (for lightweighting) in mainstream midsize cars, not just the bigger trucks, Corvettes and Cadillacs."

    "It's early days in the research and each model year the optimization will change as the price of aluminum, steel and other material changes," Tumazos said.
     
  • Commerce imposes higher penalties on S. Korean drilling pipe; impact questioned
    July 11, 2014
    Trib Live Business
    By John D. Oravecz

    http://triblive.com/business/headlines/6430406-74/steel-percent-industry#axzz37H0zAoIh

    John Tumazos of Tumazos Very Independent Research of Holmdel, N.J., said the decision likely won't change South Korea's behavior.

    “I don't think that's a big deal because some of these products sell for $1,500 a ton and have large profit margins. A $150-per-ton duty clips them but there's still significant profit,” Tumazos said. “I don't expect a 10-15 percent duty to change their behavior; it could actually embolden them because it's so small.”

    “Dumping duties of at least 30 percent would be needed to chase them away, and 50 percent would be better,” Tumazos said.
     

  • Foresight Energy Bets That There's Gold in Coal
    Illinois Miner Raises $350 Million in IPO Despite Industry's Threats From Regulators, Natural Gas
    June 17, 2014
    The Wall Street Journal
    By John W. Miller

    http://online.wsj.com/articles/foresight-energy-bets-that-theres-gold-in-coal-1403042566?KEYWORDS=Tumazos

    John Tumazos, a New Jersey investor in mining and metals stocks, says he hasn't studied the Foresight prospectus but probably wouldn't invest in coal right now. "I'd be concerned the thermal business is in secular decline because of carbon regulations," he said.
     
  • U.S. Steel to idle two tubular plants, affecting 260
    June 2, 2014
    Trib Live Business
    By John D. Oravecz

    http://triblive.com/business/headlines/6214872-74/steel-tubular-plants#axzz33WTjTfur

    The shutdowns are the result of several factors, according to John Tumazos of Tumazos Very Independent Research of Holmdel, N.J.

    “This is a combination of less-than-expected domestic demand, lower gas prices, domestic competition from newly built mills and then foreign competition.”

    Drilling activity has declined, he said, because drillers are getting more output from each well drilled, and lower prices.
     

  • U.S. Steel issues may boost near-term prices: analysts
    April 15, 2014
    American Metal Market Daily
    By Michael Cowden

    "These twin interuptions at Great Lakes and Gary are unique and unprecedented," John Tumazos, principal of Holmdel, N.J.-based John Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC, told AMM April 14, noting that both facilities serve similar geographic and end-use markets. This presents opportunities, but not to steel producers in the "penalty box" because of production problems, he said.

    "You certainly don't want to be the one who is raising prices most if you're also the one who can't deliver steel,: Tumazos said. "People have long memories."
     
  • U.S. Steel say cost savings rise to $290 M
    April 30, 2014
    Trib Live Business
    By John D. Oravecz

    http://triblive.com/business/headlines/6034710-74/steel-million-quarter#axzz30SnjogV6

    Analyst John Tumazos of Tumazos Very Independent Research of Holmdel, N.J., estimated the company will lose 700,000 tons of finished steel because of shutdowns, about 15 to 18 percent of normal volume. The impact on profit could be $1 to $2 per share, Tumazos said.

    “There is an issue of how well they control the damage,” he said, in terms of business lost to competitors, discounts required to retain or recapture business, and whether impatient customers place import orders to keep plants running. Tumazos said.
     
  • Who will rule Malartic after Yamana-Agnico-Osisko deal?
    April 17, 2014
    Mineweb
    By Dorothy Kosich

    http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-gold-news?oid=237909&sn=Detail

    A note by analyst John Tumazos of John Tumazo’s Very Independent Research proclaimed in all caps: “ACQUISITION PROPOSAL POORLY UNDERSTOOD AND POORLY ACCEPTED.”

    “AEM’S proposal to buy ½ of Osisko in partnership with Yamana Gold caused a $457 million or 8.56% or $2.61/share meltdown in AEM’s market value, which we do not blame on the US$475 MM in new net debt-equivalents from Osisko or 33 million new AEM shares,” said Tumazos.

    “We believe there were ‘inefficiencies’ inherent in the complicated four-term offer AEM and AUY made for Osisko, where the market penalized AEM and AUY and rewarded GG today,” he suggested. “We suspect the 4-way negotiations were very tedious.”

    “In our opinion, Goldcorp’s C$7.65 bid made April 10th for Osisko in worth more than the C$8.15 April 16th bid made by AUY and AEM for Osisko,” Tumazos advised.

    “It could prove cheaper for Goldcorp to buy AEM after AEM share price declines than to have bought Osisko from the outset,” he observed. “We hope for AEM’s sake that Goldcorp outbids AUY and AEM, and AEM does not labor under the complex structures. We assume these complex structures were the suggestions of either Osisko or AEM’s advisors seeking fees.”
     

  • DIARY-U.S. MEETINGS/WEEK AHEAD
    March 31, 2014

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/31/diary-us-meetings-week-idUSL4N0MS33F20140331
     
  • DIARY-U.S. MEETINGS/WEEK AHEAD
    March 28, 2014

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/28/diary-us-meetings-week-idUSL4N0MP2SE20140328
     
  • Rusal derails London Metal Exchange plan to cut warehouse queues
    March 27, 2014
    Reuters
    By Eric Onstad and Veronica Brown

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/27/us-metals-warehouse-idUSBREA2Q19R20140327

    Shares in Alcoa Inc (AA.N), the biggest U.S. aluminum producer, jumped 5.3 percent to $12.50 in early trading on the New York Stock Exchange. "There could be a perception that the premiums... could be larger as a result," said John Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent Research.
     
  • U.S. Steel curtails operations
    April 3, 2014
    Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
    By Len Boselovic

    http://www.post-gazette.com/business/2014/04/04/ussteel0404/stories/201404030300

    The Gary plant is capable of producing 7.5 million tons of steel annually, while the Great Lakes mill can produce 3.8 million tons. Both mills serve primarily the auto industry, according to John Tumazos, an industry analyst based in Holmdel, N.J. He said that, depending on how long the outages last, they could create problems for motor vehicle producers.
     
  • U.S. Steel shuffles execs; shutdowns could cost millions, analysts say
    April 4, 2014
    Trib Live Business
    By John D. Oravecz

    http://triblive.com/business/headlines/5883844-74/steel-customers-cost#axzz2xrbUoXx4

    John Tumazos of Tumazos Very Independent Research of Holmdel, N.J., said Turk's appointment to head the Carnegie Way “implies an effort to be more customer centric. Caterpillar is both a large manufacturer and a customer, and bringing someone in from a customer means there are profit and cost-reduction opportunities in the way U.S. Steel works with customers. The guy from CAT will take a broader view of things.”

    “It's like dropping a bomb on customers when you have plant outages,” Tumazos said. “It's a very bad break for U.S. Steel. Each location could cost millions a day, and the impact at Gary would probably be two-and-a-half times Great Lakes because of the relative size of the plants.”

    Tumazos estimated the financial impact of the shutdowns at $1 a share or more in the second quarter. For 2013, U.S. Steel reported a net loss of $1.67 billion, or $11.56 per share.
     

  • ‘Very Independent’ Tumazos highlights Largo, Rare Element Resources and Texas Rare Earth
    April 2, 2014
    Investor Intel
    By Tracy Weslosky

    http://investorintel.com/rare-earth-intel/independent-tumazos-highlights-largo-rare-element-resources-texas-rare-earth/

     
  • Mega Precious Metals Webcast Presentation is Available From the John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals and Mining Conference

    NEW YORK, NEW YORK--(Marketwired - April 1, 2014) - Mega Precious Metals' (TSX:MGP) webcast from the John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals and Mining Conference is available on the link below and on its website www.megapmi.com. Glen Kuntz, President & CEO, presented to a group of institutional investors this morning.

    WEBCAST LINK
    http://www.wsw.com/webcast/vir13/mgp.v/

    Mega Precious Metals Inc. is a leading Canadian-based exploration company with a high quality pipeline of projects located in the mining friendly jurisdictions of Manitoba, Northwestern Ontario and Nunavut. The Company's significant portfolio includes the flagship Monument Bay Gold Tungsten Project in NE Manitoba as well as the N. Madsen Gold Project in the prolific gold mining district of Red Lake, Ontario. Mega has established a record of delivering rapid growth through their focused and low cost approach to exploration and resource development. The Company's common shares trade on the TSX Venture Exchange under the symbol MGP.

    For further information and presentation material, please review the Mega website at
    www.megapmi.com.

    CONTACT INFORMATION:
    Mega Precious Metals Inc.
    Glen Kuntz, P.Geo.
    President, Chief Executive Officer & Director
    O: 807-766-3380
    TF: 877-592-3380
    info@megapmi.com
     
  • X2 Resources Raises Up to $3.75 Billion
    Former Xstrata CEO Mick Davis to Finance Midsize Metals, Mining Group

    March 31, 2014
    The Wall Street Journal
    By John W. Miller, Alistair MacDonald, and Alex MacDonald

    http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304157204579472872228153100?KEYWORDS=Tumazos&mg=reno64-wsj

    "Mick is likely going to pursue a low-risk strategy," adds John Tumazos, a New Jersey-based investor and analyst with Very Independent Research LLC.
     
  • Virginia Mines Corporate Presentation Monday March 31, 2014

    Virginia Mines will be presenting at John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals & Mining Conference a corporate presentation on Monday March 31, 2014 at 2:15 p.m.(EDT)

    The conference will be held at The Westin Grand Central Hotel, 212 East 42nd Street, New York.

    A webcast will be launched. Click here to access the Webcast.

    For more information please contact:
    Stéphanie Boivin at
    info@minesvirginia.com
     

  • Orient Paper to Attend John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC Thirteenth Metals and Natural Resources Conference in New York
    March 24, 2014

    http://app.quotemedia.com/quotetools/newsStoryPopup.go?storyId=66600592&topic=ONP&symbology=null&cp=null&webmasterId=101168

    BAODING, China, March 24, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- Orient Paper, Inc. (NYSE MKD: ONP) ("Orient Paper" or the "Company"), a leading manufacturer and distributor of diversified paper products in North China, today announced that Mr. Winston Yen, the Company's Chief Financial Officer, will present at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC Thirteenth Metals and Natural Resources Conference, to be held on March 31, 2014 in New York, NY. Details for the conference are as follows:

    John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC Thirteenth Metals and Natural Resources Conference
    Date: Monday March 31, 2014
    Time: 5:10 PM Eastern
    Location: Westin New York Grand Central Hotel 212 East 42nd Street, New York
    Organizers: John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC
    Webcast Link:
    http://www.wsw.com/webcast/vir13 

    Investors who wish to meet Mr. Yen may contact the Company's investor relations advisor via ir@orientpaperinc.com. For more information about the conference, please contact John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC
     
  • Orvana Minerals to Present at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research Conference

    Presentation Information:
    Michael Winship, Interim President and CEO will be presenting at 4:00 pm ET on Monday, March 31, 2014
    Register to View Presentation: http://www.wsw.com/webcast/vir13/
     
  • Texas Rare Earth Resources to Present at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research Conference on March 31st
    March 26, 2014

    http://trer.com/news/press_releases/index.php?&content_id=94

    SIERRA BLANCA, Texas, March 26, 2014 (MARKETWIRED) - Texas Rare Earth Resources Corp. (OTCQX: TRER) (“Texas Rare Earth”), a heavy rare earths exploration company, today announced that Anthony Marchese, Chairman of the Board, will present at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC Thirteenth Metals and Natural Resources Conference on Monday, March 31st at 5:10 p.m. Eastern in NYC.  The Conference will be available via webcast.

    John Tumazos Very Independent Research Conference Details:

    Date: Monday March 31, 2014
    Presenting Time: 5:10 PM Eastern
    Location: Westin New York Grand Central Hotel 212 East 42nd Street, New York
    Tract: Natural Resources
    For more information please visit:
    http://veryindependentresearch.com/Conferences/march_31,_2014.htm

    Webcasting Link:
    http://www.wsw.com/webcast/vir13 

     
  • Apollo cutting Noranda stake to 34 percent
    March 12, 2014
    American Metals Market
    By Michael Cowden

    http://www.amm.com/Article/3318405/Nonferrous/Apollo-cutting-Noranda-stake-to-34-percent.html
     
    Apollo probably hadn't planned to own Noranda for as long as it has, independent analyst John Tumazos said, noting that private equity firms generally prefer to sell more quickly.  But that's llikely not an option in the current market.
     
    "So then the public market is the only exit mechanism.  You want to think of this like you're trying to get rid of a bad girlfriend," Tumazos said. 
     
    Apollo bought Noranda at the top of the aluminum market in 2007, a year before the "bottom fell out," he said.  "This is a (timing error) of epic proportions, where Apollo bought within weeks of a multidecade high in aluminum prices."
     
    Xstrata Plc sold Noranda Aluminum Inc. to Apollo for $1.15 billion in 2007 (amm.com April 11, 2007).
    "It's an extraordinary achievement that Noranda has survived all of the tough events since Apollo bought in because there has been no good luck in this business since then."
     
  • Gold industry must rebuild credibility and refine focus - Tumazos
    March 7, 2014
    Mineweb
    By Dorothy Kosich

    http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-gold-analysis?oid=231968&sn=Detail

    Mining analyst John Tumazos urges the CEOs of major gold companies “to renounce construction of complex large mines, whether in this hemisphere or remote locations.”

    Recently at PDAC, mining analyst John Tumazos of John Tumazos Very Independent Research noted he received “an earful from in-my-face managers offended that I did not appreciate the wonderful mines or development projects they had conceived.”

    What incurred the managers’ wrath was a February 28th letter Tumazos sent to the CEOs of gold mining companies, Barrick, Newmont, Goldcorp, AngloGold Ashanti, Agnico-Eagle and Kinross, urging them “to renounce construction of complex large mines, whether in this hemisphere or remote locations.”

    Tumazos estimated that through February 27th, gold mines have written off $45 billion before taxes for calendar 2013 and “$72 billion since 2008 solely for precious metals aside from copper or energy mishaps. These charges are very large in relation to historic dividends or earnings and have shaken confidence.”
     

  • Falling prices may negate U.S. Steel cost-cutting plan
    February 22, 2014
    Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
    By Len Boselovic

    http://www.post-gazette.com/business/2014/02/23/Falling-prices-may-negate-U-S-Steel-cost-cutting-plan/stories/201402230118
     
    Analyst John Tumazos said domestic producers also will be dented by the stronger U.S. dollar, which makes imports more competitively priced compared to domestically produced steel.

    "It's difficult to pass price hikes when the dollar strengthens," the Holmdel, N.J., analyst said.

    Despite that, Mr. Tumazos is expecting an improved performance from the Pittsburgh company this year.

    "I think U.S. Steel's costs will fall more than prices might. And there's a good chance they won't lose money in 2014," he said.

    Despite the concern about lower prices, U.S. Steel shares topped $30 in January, nearly 70 percent higher than they were when Mr. Longhi took over Sept. 1.

    Their ascent reflected investor confidence that the former Alcoa executive will be able to right the ship, optimism Mr. Tumazos jokingly referred to as "the Super Mario bubble."
     

  • South Korea escapes pipe-dumping duties
    February 18, 2014
    Trib Live Business
    By John D. Oravecz

    http://triblive.com/business/headlines/5618919-74/steel-dumping-tons#axzz2thy4Dcj5

    “It affected a couple of countries, but had no affect on others,” said John Tumazos of Tumazos Very Independent Research of Holmdel, N.J. “It's better to spend time on cutting costs like (CEO) Mario Longhi at U.S. Steel is doing than pursue anti-dumping suits, which are not effective.”

    Tumazos said, “In many ways, trade cases are a waste of time and expensive, costing several million dollars each. They distract management and send a bad message to the rank and file, who don't feel they have to reduce costs. They are as significant as the kicking game in football to the overall outcome.”

    As a result of this case, U.S. Steel might ship 100,000 more tons of tubing and get $25-$50 more per ton sold, Tumazos said.

    The overall market for oil and gas tubing is about 3 million to 4 million tons per year, Tumazos said, based on industry reports.

    As much a problem as imports is new domestic manufacturing capacity. “Everybody except U.S. Steel is building a tube mill,” Tumazos said. They include the Vallourec plant in Youngstown, and others by Borusan Mannesmann in Baytown, Texas, Tenaris in Bay City, Texas, and Benteler in Caddo, La.

    “There are competitive factors over and above the imports,” he said. “There was more demand anticipated than actually happened. There are three to five more tube mills in the U.S. than are needed. It's going to be competitive unless demand brings natural gas prices back to $7 (per mcf) on a sustained basis.”
     

  • Allegheny Technologies' 4Q profit up despite lower sales
    January 22, 2014
    Trib Live Business
    By John D. Oravecz

    http://triblive.com/business/headlines/5462717-74/million-ati-business#axzz2rAOtgOQL
     
    “They had an unusually bad quarter in titanium and a loss from operations. It was not a quarter to write home about,” said analyst John Tumazos of Tumazos Very Independent Research of Holmdel, N.J.

    Tumazos said the market was reacting to the fact that only one of Allegheny Technologies various businesses, high-nickel alloys, had reasonable performance in 2013.

    “Their fourth quarter was perverse,” he said, citing only eight million pounds of titanium sold during the period, even as Boeing is increasing production of its 787 Dreamliner from 10 to 14 planes per month.

    “I think Allegheny is improving, but they've got to get more out of titanium, their core stainless steel and forging businesses,” Tumazos said.

    Tumazos said the key for the company will be the Brackenridge mill. “It's going to be huge; in the fourth-quarter, in 2015 and 2016, they should see the benefits,” he said. “It's the mother of all rolling mills, the most versatile in the world.”
     
    Tumazos said the sale of the tungsten business was the “right thing to do.” That combined with ATI's other plant closings means management will have 13 fewer plants, and can focus on Brackenridge. “They have simplified the company.”
     
  • Alcoa to pay $384 million to settle Bahrain bribery charges
    January 9, 2014
    Reuters
    By Allison Martell

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/09/us-alcoa-settlement-idUSBREA080PN20140109
     
    "I don't think there is too much relevance to the current personnel or the future. It is water under the bridge," said John Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent Research.
     
  • Lessons from Barrick Gold's Pascua Lama
    November 7, 2013
    SNL Metals Economics Group
    By Tiffany Grabski

    Lessons from Barrick Gold's Pascua Lama.pdf

    CapEx projections have nearly tripled since the 2009 estimate to at least US$8.5 billion-- with more than US$5 billion already spent--which John Tumazos of John Tumazos Very Independent Research sees as the consequence of a sector that has become "hypnotized."

    "What is going on is the dynamic related to building things fast, what I call the hypnosis or brainwashing," Tumazos told SNL, a dynamic that has upped costs and decreased direct responsibility.

    Adding to that, "this hypnosis' that you have to build [projects] fast, is just what the contractors want, because there is no oversight checks or balances," which Tumazos said is at the root of Pascua Lama's current state and a warnings to other miners who may be following the same path.

    "Barrick used to brag two or three years ago that they have lots of their own managers to watch the contractors, but at one point early this year, Barrick hired a second engineering firm to watch the first -- that's like three levels of cost inefficiency and stupidity," Tumazos said.

    "I suspect what they are trying to do is create a manageable process," Tumazos told SNL, adding that he thinks it was "only good that Barrick put the project on hold."

    "By demobilizing and going back to square one, they are trying to watch the process, which I think is progress," Tumazos said.

    Tumazos also suggested that Barrick might choose to develop the project in stages, rather than the full throttle 850,000 ounces per gold original plan. "They might start up at a third or half in the first year and build it in phases," he said.

     
  • U.S. Steel to close Canadian plant, Gary coke facilities to cut costs
    October 29, 2013
    Trib Live Business
    By John D. Oravecz

    http://triblive.com/business/headlines/4964727-74/steel-million-longhi#axzz2j8Xk8FL2

    John Tumazos of Tumazos Very Independent Research of Holmdel, N.J., said the company faces a decision on its Fairfield, Ala., Works, which faces intense competition from at least six mills built in the South in recent years, amid a declining market for steel.

    In the last six years, steel shipments in the United States have declined from 109.5 million tons in 2006 to a projected 95.7 million tons this year, a decline of 14 million. In addition, steel imports have declined by an additional 14 million tons over the same period. “The steel market is 28 million tons less,” he said. Fairfield is an issue because “16 million to 17 million tons of capacity have been built in their lap as the market has gotten smaller,” Tumazos said, referring to the new mills.
     

  • Veris Gold Corp. Presenting at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC Metals & Mining Conference
    October 11, 2013

    Mr. Shaun Heinrichs will be presenting at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC Metals & Mining Conference on Wednesday, October 16th at 7:40 AM (PST) / 10:40 AM (EST). The conference will be held at the Westin New York Grand Central Hotel.

    Link to the Webcast

     
  • Entree Gold to Present at the Upcoming John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals and Mining Conference October 16, 2013

    Entrée Gold is pleased to announce that Lindsay Bottomer, VP Business Development and Director, will be presenting at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals and Mining Conference taking place October 16, 2013. Mr. Bottomer is scheduled to speak at 2:20 pm (EDT) during the Natural Resources track. The event will be held at the Westin New York Grand Central Hotel (212 East 42nd Street, New York, New York 10017).
     
  • Glencore, Vale discuss merger of nickel operations in Ontario
    October 11, 2013
    The Globe and Mail
    by Eric Reguly and Marta Lillo

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/glencore-vale-revive-talks-over-canadian-nickel-tie-up-sources/article14827267/


    “Nickel has become a financial catastrophe for Vale in Canada,” said John Tumazos, research analyst at Very Independent Research LLC. “Also, the CAD has strengthened since Vale acquired Inco, making it more expensive to pay wages. Meanwhile, nickel prices have fallen about 75 per cent since 2007.”
     
  • Orvana To Attend The John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals & Mining Conference
    October 15, 2013

    http://www.orvana.com/news/pdf/131015-2.pdf

    TORONTO, ONTARIO, October 15, 2013 - Orvana Minerals Corp. (TSX:ORV, the “Company”) a multimine gold and copper producer, reports that Michael Winship, Interim President and Chief Executive Officer will present at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals & Mining Conference at 11:20 am (ET) on October 16, 2013. The conference will take place in New York, NY.

    Interested parties are invited to listen to the live webcast by visiting the front page of the Company website at www.orvana.com.
     

  • Texas Rare Earth Resources to Present at the Very Independent Research Metals & Mining Conference
    October 10, 2013

    http://trer.com/news/press_releases/index.php?&content_id=74
     
    SIERRA BLANCA, Texas, October 10, 2013 (MARKETWIRE) -- Texas Rare Earth Resources Corp. (TRER), a heavy rare earths exploration company, today announced that Anthony Marchese, Non-Executive Chairman, will present at the Very Independent Research Metals & Mining Conference on October 16th in New York City.

    Metals & Mining Presentation Details:
    Where:
    Westin New York Grand Central Hotel
    212 East 42nd Street
    New York, NY 10017

    When:                                 
    Wednesday, October 16th at 3:40 p.m.
    Webcast Link:  Please click
    here
    Conference Website:  
    http://www.veryindependentresearch.com/
     

  • Comstock Mining To Present At The New York City Metals & Mining Conference Hosted By John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC.
    October 9, 2013

    http://www.comstockmining.com/news/press-releases

    VIRGINIA CITY, Nev., Oct. 9, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Comstock Mining Inc. ("Comstock Mining" or "the Company") (NYSE MKT: LODE), a producing, Nevada-based, gold and silver mining company, today announced that Mr. Corrado De Gasperis, President and CEO, will present on Wednesday, October 16, 2013, at the Metals & Mining Conference hosted by John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC.
     
  • Is Wall Street warehousing the price of aluminum?
    October 6, 2013
    Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
    by Len Boselovic

    http://www.post-gazette.com/stories/business/news/is-wall-street-warehousing-the-price-of-aluminum-706363/

    One longtime metals industry analyst disagrees.

    "I believe the complaints of the beverage brewing customers are completely valid," said John Tumazos, a Holmdel, N.J., metals analyst.

    Warehouses "bring it in, but they don't bring it out", he (Tumazos) added.
     
  • Can U.S. Steel stage a comeback?
    Many of its problems are the product of a management that is being replaced wholesale

    August 25, 2013
    Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
    by Len Boselovic

    http://www.post-gazette.com/stories/business/news/can-us-steel-stage-comeback-700640/

    Analyst John Tumazos told clients last month that U.S. Steel "may not be able to achieved sustained profitability unless either domestic steel demand increased 10 percent, capacity falls 10 percent or some combination"
     
  • Heard Off the Street: Investors, the trend is not always your friend
    August 4, 2013
    Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
    by Len Boselovic

    http://www.post-gazette.com/stories/business/opinion/heard-off-the-street-investors-the-trend-is-not-always-your-friend-698028/

    If people drive less, they will be able to hold onto their cars longer, said John Tumazos, a Holmdel, N.J., metals industry analyst. "If people drive their cars 10 percent fewer miles, their cars will last 10 percent longer, and they'll buy 10 percent fewer."
     
  • Metals writedowns since 2008 breach $200bn - Tumazos

    July 31, 2013
    Mineweb
    by Dorothy Kosich

    http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-mining-finance-investment-old?oid=199293&sn=Detail
    In a recent analysis, John Tumazos Very Independent Research attributed metals and mining writedowns to “volatile reversals from the 1975-78, 1982-86, 1997-2003 and 2012-13 commodity price depressions to 2004-08 to 2010-11 ‘Supercycle Euphoria’.”

    Mining and Metals Analyst John Tumazos observed that the total of metals write-downs from 2008 to 2013 will breach the $200 billion mark this year.

    In his analysis, Tumazos notes, “Since 2008 the break down by sector…is Gold $48.9 billion, Aluminum and Alumina $42.3 billion, Integrated Steel $27.8 billion, Copper $25.9 billion, Nickel $12.8 billion, Met Coal $9.8 billion…Platinum $2.2 billion, Thermal Coal $1.8 billion…Diamonds $1.1 billion, Molybdenum $0.7 billion…Rare Earths $0.3 billion, Uranium $0.3 billion, and Silver $0.1 billion.”

    Year-to-date, the 2013 metals total is $19.9 billion of gold and $2.7 billion of nongold writedowns including $900 million for integrated steel, $200 million in iron ore, $500 million in coal, $500 million in energy and $500 million in the others category.

    “Some companies reported June 30th results without writing down assets that we view as eventual writedowns by year-end 2015, including Nucor (scrap acqs), Steel Dynamics (scrap acqs), Goldcorp (El Morro cu-au) and Newmont (Conga au-cu). Perhaps we anticipate half of those yet to come,” he observed.

    The largest losses from 2008-2013 have been Rio Tinto $36.2B, Barrick Gold $19.4B, Freeport-McMoRan Copper & gold $17.7B, ArcelorMittal Steel $16.6B, BHP Billiton $11.9B, ThyssenKrupp $10.2B, Kinross Gold $10.2B, Anglo American $9.8B, Vale $7.2B, Newcrest Mining $7.1B, AngloGold Ashanti $6.6b, Xstrata $6.6B, Newmont Mining $6B, Kazakhmys $3,8B, Alpha Natural Resources $2.8B, Goldcorp $2.6B, Cliffs Natural Resources $1.8B, Alcoa $1.6B, Glencore $1.5B, Eurasian Natural Resources $1.5B, and Agnico-Eagle $1.2B, according to Tumazos.

    In his analysis, Tumazos observed that hedging and the Pascua-Lama project in Chile have contributed most of Barrick Gold’s losses to date. However, bad operations or projects were a minority of Rio Tinto, AcelorMittal, and BHP’s losses.

     “In general, small losses (under $1 billion) involved aged operations, cap ex overruns, no permits, currency shifts or other mishaps,” Tumazos noted. “Big losses usually were big buyouts.

  • John Tumazos Schedule 13D Texas Rare Earth Resources
    TRER 13D_A2 - executed.pdf

     
  • Texas Rare Earth Resources Announces Board Changes
    Marketwatch
    June 5, 2013
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/texas-rare-earth-resources-announces-board-changes-2013-06-05

    SIERRA BLANCA, Texas, Jun 05, 2013 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE via COMTEX) -- Texas Rare Earth Resources Corp. (otcqx:TRER) ("Texas Rare Earth"), a heavy rare earths exploration company, today announced the appointment of Mr. Anthony Marchese as Non-Executive Chairman of the Board after having served as a director of the Company and Chairman of the Audit Committee since December 2009. Mr. Marchese replaces Mr. John Tumazos, who has resigned from the board. The company has also appointed Ms. Laura Lynch to the Board of Directors.
     
  • Form 8-K for TEXAS RARE EARTH RESOURCES CORP.
    31-May-2013


    Change in Directors or Principal Officers

    Item 5.02. Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers

    On May 27, 2013, Mr. John Tumazos resigned as a director and non-executive chairman of the board of the Corporation. Mr. Tumazos resigned from the board to dedicate more of his time to his own business and personal pursuits.

    Mr. Tumazos has informed the board that while he was pleased at the metallurgical progress evident in the company's press releases between March 20, 2013 and May 8, 2013, his resignation was due to his disagreement with certain policy decisions of the board regarding the operations of the Corporation and his belief that now is the appropriate time to sell the Corporation to a larger concern.

    The board does not believe that his concerns as expressed to the board were truly disagreements with the board's fundamental business strategy for the Corporation and its operations. The board takes its obligation to increase shareholder value seriously and is actively considering all pathways available to the Corporation while also finalizing the Corporation's current technical work to prove out alternative production methodologies from its Preliminary Economic Assessment of June 2012. The board believes that finalizing these methodologies in a cost efficient manner while simutaneously pursuing alternative strategic arrangements, including the possibility of selling the Corporation, is the best path to maximize shareholder value. The board has overseen a drastic reduction of the Corporation's use of funds and remains dedicated to using Corporate funds in an efficient manner best suited to maximizing the Corporation's value. The board will continue to consistently, actively consider and pursue all available opportunities for the Corporation and will engage qualified consultants as deemed necessary and appropriate by the board to effectively assist the board in evaluating and implementing its strategy, including if deemed appropriate, in assisting in selling the Corporation.

    The Corporation thanks Mr. Tumazos for his dedicated service to the Corporation and looks forward to continuing to work with Mr. Tumazos as a significant shareholder of the Corporation to maximize value.

    Pursuant to Item 5.02(a)(3), this Form 8-K has been provided to Mr. Tumazos. The Corporation will promptly file any letter provided by Mr. Tumazos in relation thereto by amendment to this Form 8-K.

    John Tumazos Resignation Letter: TRER jct resignation for 8k June 3.pdf

    8K Filed on EDGAR:
    TRER 8k jct resignation May 31 2013.pdf

     

  • U.S. Steel promotes COO Mario Longhi to president
    May 31, 2013
    Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
    by Len Boselovic

    http://www.post-gazette.com/stories/business/news/us-steel-promotes-coo-mario-longhi-to-president-689731/

    Analyst John Tumazos said the purpose of giving Mr. Longhi more responsibilities is to "attack costs and bring a fresh perspective from the outside."

    "The company is attacking their costs for their survival and the prosperity of the company," the Holmdel, N.J., analyst said. "What U.S. Steel is doing is the right thing."

    U.S. Steel is not the only metals producer suffering. Mr. Tumazos said Pittsburgh specialty metals producer Allegheny Technologies and aluminum producer Alcoa also have failed to capitalize on the recovery.

    "All three companies are the same. None of them are in good shape if six to 12 months from now we have a recession," Mr. Tumazos said.
     

  • U.S. Steel promotes Mario Longhi to president
    May 30, 2013
    Trib Live Business
    by Thomas Olson

    http://triblive.com/business/headlines/4109921-74/longhi-steel-president#axzz2UsNYFFoX

    "I interpret Mario's title (of president) as signifying the importance of lowering the cost of operating the company. The board is preparing for tougher days," said John Tumazos, head of Tumazos Very Independent Research in Holmdel, N.J.

    "John (Surma) may rejoice at having someone help him do the cost reductions," said Tumazos.

     

  • Steel prices fall before scrap in 'curious' move
    May 3, 2013
    American Metal Market
    by Samuel Frizell

    http://www.amm.com/Article/3201325/Steel/Mills-tweak-steel-prices-before-scrap-in-curious-move.html


    "Mills could have greater control over their pricing if they moved away from surcharges, a number of analysts told AMM. 'It's logical that the mills would not want their customers asking them for a $20 per ton price drop every time the scrap price falls," said John Tumaos, senior analyst and owner of Very Independent Research.
     

  • Heard Off the Street: U.S. Steel woes surprise analysts
    May 5, 2013
    Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
    by Len Boselovic

    http://www.post-gazette.com/stories/business/opinion/heard-off-the-street-us-steel-woes-surprise-analysts-686356/

    Any cost-cutting efforts will be hampered by the company's labor agreements with the United Steelworkers union, commercial contracts and other factors, said John Tumazos, a Holmdel, N.J., analyst. He said renegotiating medical benefits for union workers and retirees could result in substantial savings. But a good portion of those costs were fixed in September, when USW members ratified a three-year labor agreement covering about 17,000 U.S. workers.

    Mr. Surma's "mission appears to be to save more than nine figures, or $4 to $5 a ton. Given the condition of the steel market, they need something like $20 or more," Mr. Tumazos said.

    Having Mr. Longhi, a newcomer to the company, manage the review should be a good thing, he (Tumazos) added.

    "He is not accustomed to the status quo and has a fresh look," Mr. Tumazos said.

     

  • Beryllium: a Key Asset in TRER's Rich Round Top Project

    ProEdgeWire Link: http://www.proedgewire.com/?p=43129

    YouTube Link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=icO3OE-Y-VU

    Social Media: #Beryllium: a Key Asset in #TRER's Rich Round Top Project: http://youtu.be/icO3OE-Y-VU via @youtube #texasrareearthresource

    May 2, 2013 -- John Tumazos, President, Chairman, Texas Rare Earth Resources Corp. (TSXV: ZEN) in an interview with Dave Glover for ProEdgeWire (ProEdgeWire.com) describes the characteristics of the Round Top project in Hudspeth County, Texas. John states "There's a high enriched uranium zone and beryllium zone, which we believe is the richest beryllium resource in the world." For the balance of 2013 Texas Rare Earth Resources will be focusing "...rigorously engineering our process."

    Texas Rare Earth Resources Corp. (TRER) is a U.S.-based minerals company engaged in the exploration and development of critical rare earth elements and in the pursuit of precious metals opportunities.

    Disclaimer: Texas Rare Earth Resources Corp. (www.trer.com) is an advertorial member of ProEdgeWire.

    Regards,
    Sean Benson
     

  • Alcoa may cut output as prices continue dive
    American Metal Market
    May 1, 2013
    by Michael Cowden

    http://www.amm.com/Article/3199756/Search/Results/Alcoa-may-cut-output-as-prices-continue-dive.html?Keywords=alcoa&OrderType=1
     
    "This is a logical reaction to where current aluminum prices are and various pockets of weakness in different parts of the world," said John Tumazos of Very Independent Research, LLC. "It's unfortunate, but when (the aluminum price) is 80 cents (per pound) these things are going to happen."
     
    Aluminum producers might have missed a window to secure lower power prices as natural gas prices have recovered over the past year, Tumazos said. "The recovery of natural gas to $4.40 (per mm BTU) reduces the likelihood of deep concessionary power contracts and raises the possibility of a minor, mild recovery in coal prices. The window for getting deep concessionary power contracts was $1.90 (mm BTU) gas - - 13 months ago.....So the cheap power window is now gone, and the aluminum price is lousy."
     
  • UPDATE AND CLARIFICATIONS: 1/3 of global gold mines have pre-tax costs of $1,250-$1,750-Tumazos

    16 out of 49 publicly traded gold producers have very low pre-tax costs accounting for 11.5 million gold ounces, says a recent survey by John Tumazos Very Independent Research.
    Author: Dorothy Kosich
    Posted: Wednesday , 17 Apr 2013
    MINEWEB LINK: http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-gold-analysis?oid=186433&sn=Detail
    RENO (MINEWEB) -

    A survey by of 49 publicly traded companies accounting for 60% of world gold output, which was conducted by New Jersey’s John Tumazos Very Independent Research, estimates that one-third of gold mines have pretax costs of $1,250 to $1,750 per ounce.

    “The selloff from $1,900 in September 2011 to nearly $1,350 on April 15th places prices squarely within the costs of the highest one-third of mines,” wrote long-time gold analyst John Tumazos.

    “Large gold mines have about $450 per oz of other costs beyond mine cash production costs such as exploration, SG&A, interest, depreciation, etc.,” said Tumazos. “In 2013 we estimated ABX [Barrick] at $422, NEW [Newmont] at $449 and GG [Goldcorp] at $453 per oz.”

    “There were 16 of 49 companies with very low costs, having all mines <$800 direct cash production costs, accounting for 23% or 11.5 mm oz of our 49.1 mm oz or 1,528 tonne sample,” the survey revealed. “There were 15 of 49 companies with very high costs, having all mines >$800 direct cash costs, for 12% or 5.8 mm oz of our 49.1 mm oz or 1,528 t sample.”

    In a statement received by Mineweb Wednesday, Tumazos clarified that only four companies, not the five originally contained in his analysis—Sibanye Gold (just spun out of Gold Fields), and DRD Gold, Veris Gold (Jerritt Canyon, NV) and about ¾ of Harmony Gold--have direct costs exceeding $1,000 for all mines. “These companies are under the most pressure,” he noted.

    Tumazos predicted, “While a few old mines will be lost, unfunded new projects slated for 2016 or 2017 may likely die off given the lack of gold mine equity capital. We estimate that up to 5% of current output may wither then die, but 10% of prospective 2016 or 2017 output will not arrive on time.”

    In his analysis Tumazos observed the cost structure of the global gold mining industry suggests a temporary spike below $1,000 gold is improbable. “We stop short of using the word ‘impossible’, but it is clear that costs are about three times as high as they were a decade ago as the mining boom began. Lower grade mines, $90 per barrel crude oil, appreciated resource currencies, wage inflation, government royalties and natural productivity losses to depth have driven costs higher. This is another factor suggesting to us that the past month’s decline in gold prices constitute a ‘panic.’”

    Over long periods of time such as five or more years, Tumazos expects gold mining costs to rise as open pit and underground mines deepen to lose productivity and suffer high stripping, metallurgies grow more complex at depth and grades decline.

    Tumazos also advised that direct cash production costs may change with currency, mine practices or other input costs. “Higher cutoffs grades, deferred stripping, deferred underground tunnel, stope and infrastructure development and bypassing hard-to-mine zones can cut costs by 25% or more for a year or two. Exploration and administrative charges will fall.”

    Observing that base metals mines account for cost to 20% of world gold mine output, Tumazos said, “Recent prices near $7 for nickel, $0.80 for zinc, $0.90 for lead and $3.25 per lb for copper put mild pressure on some of those mines.”

  • TRER's Texas Sized Rare Earth Deposit Advantage
    April 4, 2013
    ProEdgeWire
    ProEdgeWire Link: http://www.proedgewire.com/rare-earth-tv/trers-texas-sized-rare-earth-deposit-advantage/
    Youtube Link:
    http://youtu.be/IQYKkJnlFE8

    April 4 2013 -- John Tumazos, Chairman of the Board, Texas Rare Earth Resources Corp. (TRER, OTCQX: TRER) in an interview with Tracy Weslosky, Publisher of ProEdgeWire (ProEdgeWire.com) states "...we think we'll have the lowest mining costs per ton of any (copper mine, iron ore mine) mine in North America of like size." Adding: "We have a billion pounds of heavy rare earth oxides" and the "...richest beryllium deposit in the world." And concludes with infrastructure advantages such as the land buffer package the State of Texas has placed around their property.

    TRER is a U.S.-based minerals company engaged in the exploration and development of critical rare earth elements and in the pursuit of precious metals opportunities. Their primary focus is exploring and, if warranted, developing its Round Top rare earth minerals project located in Hudspeth County, Texas, 85 miles east of El Paso.

    Disclaimer: Texas Rare Earth Resources Corp. (www.TRER.com) is an advertorial member of ProEdgeWire.

    If you need any additional assistance, please do not hesitate to contact me.

    Regards,
    Sean Benson
     

  • U.S. Steel plant's fate unsolved, Slovak prime minister says
    by Alex Nixon
    March 25, 2013
    Trib Live Business

    http://triblive.com/business/headlines/3724303-74/steel-plant-slovakia#axzz2OgQJzmWl

    U.S. Steel had hoped to sell the plant, but industry analyst John Tumazos, with Very Independent Research in Holmdel, N.J., said economics don't favor that.


    “The way that the world has unfolded in the last two years does not make it easy to sell steel from Kosice,” Tumazos said. “I don't think it's in the power of the Slovak government to make steel prices higher or production costs lower.”

    The Serbian plant accounted for most of the $200 million loss on European operations U.S. Steel recorded in 2011, Tumazos said.

    “It appeared when they were running the two plants that Kosice was break-even,” he (Tumazos) said. “But conditions seem to be worse than when they walked out of Serbia.”

     
  • Entrée Gold to Present at the Upcoming John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals and Mining Conference March 28, 2013

    Entrée Gold is pleased to announce that Lindsay Bottomer, VP Business Development and Director, will be presenting at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals and Mining Conference taking place March 28, 2013.

    The event will be held at the Westin New York Grand Central Hotel (212 East 42nd Street, New York, New York 10017). Mr. Bottomer is scheduled to speak at 10:20 am (est).

    Presentation slides and a simultaneous audio webcast of the presentation will be available through the following link:

    John Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC's Metals & Mining Conference Webcast

    A link to the webcast along with presentation slides will also be available on the Entrée Gold website:
    http://www.entreegold.com/investors/presentations/


    Please contact us if you require further information.

    Kind regards,
    Entrée Gold Inc.

    Monica Hamm
    Manager Investor Relations

     
  • Texas Rare Earth Resources to Present at the Very Independent Research Conference on March 28th

    March 25, 2013- Sierra Blanca, TX- Texas Rare Earth Resources Corp. (OTCQX:TRER) ("Texas Rare Earth"), a heavy rare earths exploration company, today announced that John C. Tumazos, Chairman of the Board, will present at the Very Independent Research Conference on Thursday, March 28th at 5:05 p.m. Eastern in NYC

    Very Independent Research Conference Details:
    Date: Thursday, March 28, 2013
    Presenting Time: 5:05 p.m. Eastern
    Location: Westin Grand Central 212 East 42nd Street, New York
    Tract: Natural Resources

    For more information including webcasting please visit
    http://www.wsw.com/webcast/vir11/register.aspx?conf=vir11&page=index&url=http%3A//www.wsw.com/webcast/vir11/.
     
  • Orient Paper to Present at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals and Mining Conference in New York

    BAODING, China, March 22, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Orient Paper, Inc. (NYSE MKT: ONP) ("Orient Paper" or the "Company"), a leading manufacturer and distributor of diversified paper products in North China, announced today that it will be presenting at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals and Mining Conference on March 28, 2013.

    The date, time and location of Orient Paper's presentation at the conference are as follows:
    Date: Thursday, March 28, 2013
    Time: 8:35 to 9:10 a.m. US Eastern Time
    Presenter: Mr. Winston Yen, Chief Financial Officer
    Venue: Westin Grand Central, 212 East 42nd Street, New York, NY

    The presentation will be available for download from the Company's website at http://www.orientpaperinc.com/corporate-presentation.html on March 29, 2013

    Investors who wish to meet with Orient Paper's management may contact John Tumazos via john@veryindependentresearch.com from John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC or the Company's investor relations advisor via ir@orientpaperinc.com. For more information about the conference and registration, please visit:

    http://www.veryindependentresearch.com/Conferences/march_28,_2013.htm
     

  • U.S. Steel, Nucor CEOs urge caution on natural gas exports
    March 22, 2013
    by John D. Oravecz
    Trib Live Business

    http://triblive.com/business/headlines/3703788-74/gas-steel-natural#axzz2OGoc8M4d

    John Tumazos, a steel analyst with Very Independent Research in Holmdel, N.J., said the U.S. Steel and Nucor comments were self-serving.

    “If you own ground in Beaver or Westmoreland counties with shale gas, and got royalties, you'd want the producer to sell for the highest price. ... A natural gas producer in a free-market economy should be able to sell to whomever he wants.”

    “In the long run I don't think exports will be a big deal,” Tumazos said. The process of cooling natural gas to a liquid is complicated, demanding and expensive. “I'll be surprised if 10 (percent) to 20 percent is exported.”

    Steel analyst Tumazos said it's unfortunate that Chinese companies are subsidized, but American manufacturers that make products from steel are “at a disadvantage if they don't get cheaper steel.”

    He (Tumazos) said steelmakers should cut prices to discourage imports and sell more products here and overseas.

    In the era when hot-rolled coil sold for $300 to $400 a ton, companies watched costs more closely. With prices now at $620 or higher, they aren't as diligent, he (Tumazos) said.

     
  • Aluminum pins 2013 hopes on political fortunes
    December 31, 2012
    by Suzy Waite
    American Metal Market

    http://www.amm.com/Article/3155193/Aluminum-pins-2013-hopes-on-political-fortunes.html

    John Tumazos of Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel N.J. agreed. "China is growing, but not as fast. And the Chinese are expanding production when demand is slower," he said. "U.S. and European output doesn't matter. The issue is whether the Chinese expand five, 10 or 15 percent. They are 45 percent of world output, and no one thinks (demand) will grow by 10 or 12 percent (in 2013)"

    "I think you have to be worried (about the price) when there are consecutive weeks of record exchange inventories and most regions in the world appear to be slowing," said Tumazos, who expects the average aluminum price to hover around $1,984 per tonne this year.
     
  • Title: TRER a 'multi-trick pony' Deposit with 25 Minerals: 15 Rare Earths and 2 Energy Minerals

    CONTENT: John Tumazos, Chairman of the Board, Texas Rare Earth Resources Corp. (OTCQX: TRER) in an interview with Tracy Weslosky, Publisher of ProEdgeWire (ProEdgeWire.com) states: "We believe we are the richest beryllium deposit known" and adds "we think we have the best logistics in the world and the lowest mining costs per ton of any mine in North America of any type."

    Tumazos noted that TRER is a "multi-trick pony" deposit having 25 minerals, 15 of which rare earths and two energy minerals. TRER has the capability to recover 18 or 19 of these, which suggests that the property could "earn an economic return from the 15 rare earths alone or uranium and thorium alone". TRER can also capitalize on its beryllium (298,000 ton historical resource estimate) and niobium resources. It should be an exciting 2013 for TRER

    Disclaimer: Texas Rare Earth Resources Corp. is a member of ProEdgeWire.

    Interview Link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7LqQoT_mo4A&feature=youtu.be

     

  • Vale's nickel production down 1.9% in 2012
    February 4, 2013
    by Carolina Guerra
    Metal Bulletin


    http://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/3150453/Vales-nickel-production-down-19-in-2012.html

    “Many many problems exist in the nickel supply-demand balance and specific Vale operations, where Vale employs billions of dollars of assets to earn little or nothing prior to impairments,” John Tumazos, from John Tumazos Very Independent Research, told Metal Bulletin.

    “I think their best strategy for nickel is to try to fix their mines not started up to full potential, and wait for a better time with a stronger world economy,” Tumazos added referring to a current situation of low prices and high refined inventories in the nickel market.

     
  • US construction to help copper in 2013
    January 24, 2013
    By Suzy Waite
    American Metal Market

    http://www.amm.com/Article/3146208/US-construction-to-help-copper-in-2013.html

    "I think copper is the tightest of the metals," said John Tumazos of Very Independent Research, LLC. "But I don't think it is a complete statement." While some companies are delaying projects, others such as a Rio Tinto PLC and Freeport, are expanding copper production, which could put excess copper on the marketplace, he said.

     
  • Anglo's New CEO Takes Tough Task
    January 9, 2013
    By Devon Maylie and John Miller
    The Wall Street Journal

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323706704578229531018722450.html

    Anglo American's Minas Rio project in Brazil "is going to be a headache no matter who runs it," said analyst John Tumazos, a New Jersey analyst who owns 8,000 shares of Anglo American. "It's going to take time before he knows enough to add value there with his expertise." He (Tumazos) predicted that Mr. Cutifani would write down the investment at the first opportunity.
     
  • Beryllium: a Key Asset in TRER's Strategy
    Proedgewire
    December 6, 2012
    by Alessandro Bruno

    http://proedgewire.com/rare-earth-intel/beryllium-a-key-asset-in-trers-strategy-for-future-growth/

    "The beryllium mineralization structure, according to Trer, is present alongside areas of potentially economic grade uranium deposits. Trer has also found evidence to suggest that this mineralization also exists under Sierra Blanca. Based on the Cyprus results there could be as much as 298,000 short tons at 1.9% of beryllium ore, which would guarantee sufficient resources to operate for several years given that the beryllium market is rather small at around 100 tons a year. Indeed, Chairman, John Tumazos, believes that Trer’s deposits “is one of the largest and richest in the world”. The extraction process, moreover, would be based around the original tunnel built by Cyprus inside the mountain, which should be capable of yielding some 30,000 tons. Beryllium is mostly found in the United States and Kazakhstan, which also hold the only related processing facilities."
     
  • Clarification and Retraction of Technical Disclosure
    Galway Resources Press Release
    December 7, 2012

    http://www.galwayresources.com/s/NewsReleases.asp?ReportID=560770&_Type=News-Releases&_Title=Clarification-and-Retraction-of-Technical-Disclosure

    John Tumazos Very Independent Research Explanation: We removed the August 20, 2008 John Tumazos Very Independent Opinions memorandum on the Victorio molybdenum-tungsten deposit from our John Tumazos Very Independent Opinions website, http://www.veryindependentopinions.com/  following a November 4, 2011 visit to the New Mexico site as our 2008 memorandum had become outdated.
     
  • Heard Off the Street: Aerospace firms facing a dilemma
    Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
    November 18, 2012
    By Len Boselovic

    http://www.post-gazette.com/stories/business/news/heard-off-the-street-aerospace-firms-facing-a-dilemma-662599/

    Consequently, their suppliers "want to sell a system or solutions rather than something that costs so many cents a pound," said John Tumazos, an industry analyst from Holmdel, N.J.

    "They know they have a bunch of businesses that are not well understood in the market," Mr. Tumazos said. "Aerospace investors treat the steel company like a liability."

     
  • U.S. Steel weighs bids for Slovakia plant
    Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
    November 14, 2012
    By Len Boselovic

    http://www.post-gazette.com/stories/business/news/us-steel-weighs-bids-for-slovakia-plant-662001/

    "The Slovak mill is a good mill. It's doing really well not to lose money this year given that Europe's not so good," said John Tumazos, an industry analyst based in Holmdel, N.J.

    He (Tumazos) said the plant is worth more now than it was when U.S. Steel arrived, based on investments the steel producer has made during its tenure.

    Mr. Tumazos said ArcelorMittal, the world's largest steel producer, probably is not interested because it is slashing costs. Stung by a $709 million third-quarter loss, the Luxembourg steel producer will save $1 billion annually by slashing its dividend from 75 cents to 20 cents. ArcelorMittal's chairman, CEO and president, Lakshmi Mittal, "is a seller these days, not a buyer," Mr. Tumazos said.

     
  • Thompson Creek offering $350 M in notes
    American Metal Market
    November 13, 2012
    By Thorsten Schier

    http://www.amm.com/Article/3117336/Nonferrous/Thompson-Creek-offering-350M-in-notes.html

    Analyst John Tumazos of Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC agreed that revolving credit facilities were more constraining, involving "strict covenants, regular oversight and ongoing input as (to) how to run the business," and the replacement of the revolving facility would be a positive development for the company.

    "Management chooses a higher interest rate cost and higher underwriting fee schedule from a ‘junk bond’ in place of bank debt to keep management jobs," Tumazos told AMM in an e-mail. "More debt and higher financing costs will not make the company healthier."
     

  • Thompson Creek's Loughrey announces plans to retire
    American Metal Market
    November 9, 2012
    By Thorsten Schier

    http://www.amm.com/Article/3116080/Nonferrous/Thompson-Creeks-Loughrey-announces-plans-to-retire.html


    "Usually in a financially weak company, the creditors or banks appoint the successor chief executive officer, which is what I would expect here," John Tumazos, analyst at Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC, told AMM. "I think Kevin will be replaced by someone whose job is to prevent the company from spending any discretionary money, such as the lenders might dictate," adding that personnel cuts at the company were likely.

     
  • Yukon-Nevada Gold Presents at John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC Metals and Mining Conference

    http://www.yukon-nevadagold.com/s/Events.asp?ReportID=539703&_Type=Events&_Title=John-Tumazos-Very-Independent-Research-LLC-Metals-Mining-Conference
     
  • Golden Minerals to Present at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC Metals and Mining Conference
    September 27, 2012

    http://www.goldenminerals.com/pdfs/GLDN_InvestorKit/Press-Release-Sept-27-12-Presents-Tumazos.pdf

    GOLDEN, Colo., September 27, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- Golden Minerals Company (NYSE MKT: AUMN) (TSX: AUM), a growing mid-tier silver and gold producer with mining operations in Durango State, Mexico, announced today that it is participating in the John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC Metals and Mining Conference being held at the Westin New York Grand Central Hotel at 212 East 42nd Street in New York, October 2 through 3, 2012. At 12:00pm ET on October 2, 2012, Jeffrey Clevenger, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of Golden Minerals Company, will participate in a webcast company presentation where he will discuss the company’s current operations and future outlook.

    A link to the live webcast of the presentation, along with the accompanying presentation materials, will be available at http://www.goldenminerals.com/. If you are unable to listen to the live presentation, an archive will be available on the website for 90 days after the conference. A separate link to the webcast will be available at www.wsw.com or at http://www.veryindependentresearch.com/Conferences/fall_2012.htm .
     

  • Texas Rare Earth Resources to Present at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC Metals and Mining Conference
    September 27, 2012

    http://trer.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Press_Release_Sept26_PresentatConference.pdf


    SIERRA BLANCA, TX, September 27, 2012-- Texas Rare Earth Resources Corp. (OTCQB: TRER), a heavy rare earths exploration and development company, announced today that John Tumazos, non-executive chairman of the board, will present at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC Metals & Mining Conference at the Westin New York Grand Central Hotel at 212 East 42nd Street in New York City on Wednesday, October 3rd at 4:00 PM ET. A link to the live webcast of the presentation, along with presentation materials, will be available at www.trer.com. If you are unable to listen to the live presentation, an archive will be available on the website for 90 days after the conference. A separate link to the webcast be available at
    http://www.wsw.com/webcast/vir10/ or at http://www.veryindependentresearch.com/Conferences/fall_2012.htm
     
  • Aluminum price slide could cap smelter capacity
    American Metal Market
    August 28, 2012
    By Suzy Waite

    http://www.amm.com/Article/3080615/Home/Aluminum-price-slide-could-cap-smelter-capacity.html

    "The price will drop until companies cut output," said John Tumazos, an analyst at Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC, who said he expects "large output cuts" in the coming weeks.

     
  • Union contract with U.S. Steel expected
    Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
    August 29, 2012
    By Len Boselovic

    http://www.post-gazette.com/stories/business/news/union-contract-with-us-steel-expected-650919/

    "I think the [Mittal] furnaces are going to be cold. Whether it's a lockout or a strike, it doesn't matter," said John C. Tumazos, a Holmdel, N.J., analyst. "It is not tenable to have $75-and-change employment costs. Around the world, people build new mills and pay their workers $20 and less per hour."

    Mr. Tumazos estimated those liabilities (health and life insurance benefits to retirees) could increase 20 percent by the end of the year -- excluding any increases caused by higher health care costs -- because of record low interest rates. The value of retiree pension and health care benefits is determined by interest rates. The lower the rate, the bigger the liability.

    Mr. Tumazos is not so sure (that ArcelorMittal would be unable to hold out for more than U.S. Steel gets). He believes ArcelorMittal chairman, president and CEO Lakshmi Mittal, who owns 40 percent of the steelmaker's stock, "is completely serious" about demanding $28 an hour in concessions. Consequently, U.S. Steel will be at a disadvantage if Mittal receives more generous concessions, Mr. Tumazos said.

     
  • Texas Rare Earth Resources 8-K for Board Compensation and CEO Compensation

    TRER - Form 8-K for Board Compensation and CEO Compensation.pdf
     
  • Texas Rare Earth Resources 8-K for Change in Directors or Principal Officers

    trer8-k August 3, 2012 Change in Directors or Principal Officers.pdf
     
  • Texas Rare Earth Resources August 7, 2012 Conference Call Transcript

    TRER Conf.-Call-Transcript-08.07.2012.pdf

     
  • Texas Rare Earth Resources Announces Newly Appointed Chief Executive Officer and New Board Members
    Source: August 6, 2012 Press Release from Texas Rare Earth Resources Website

    DENVER & SIERRA BLANCA, Texas--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Texas Rare Earth Resources Corp. (the “Company”) (OTCQX: TRER), a rare earths mineral exploration and development company, has announced the appointment of Mr. Daniel Gorski as its chief executive officer, as well as the addition of five new members to its board of directors: Mr. John C. Tumazos, CFA, as non-executive chairman, and Dr. Philip Goodell, Dr. Nicholas Pingitore, Mr. Cecil Wall, and Mr. James Wolfe as directors. Mr. Gorski commented, “I am pleased to have these very experienced and talented individuals joining the Texas Rare Earth Resources’ board. We are continuing to advance the Round Top project in Texas, and in the near term we plan to focus on metallurgy and proving out our ability to extract the valuable minerals in this deposit.”

    Full Press Release:
    TRER_New-CEO-Board-Members_FINAL-PR.pdf
     
  • With Demand Sputtering, Miners Pause Big Projects
    August 3, 2012
    by Liam Pleven and John W. Miller

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444840104577553460712866028.html

    "About half of the institutional investors have stopped investing in mining and cyclical resources," says John Tumazos, an investment adviser based in New Jersey.

     
  • Texas Rare Earth Resources, Form 8K for change in control dated July 24, 2012

    TRER - Form 8-K for Change in Control (7-24) v4.pdf
     
  • Texas Rare Earth Resources, Excerpt from July 16, 2012 10Q
     
    On June 12, 2012, three of our shareholders filed a Schedule 13D with the SEC to act together to explore their options concerning proposing and voting as a group on candidates for the Board of Directors of TRER, including potentially for the purpose of changing control of TRER.

    On July 5, 2012, the three shareholders who had filed a Schedule 13D on June 12, 2012, plus a group of other participants, including some additional shareholders of the Company, filed a preliminary Schedule 14A with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission, regarding the solicitation of consents to four separate proposals to the shareholders: (i) repeal any provision of the Company's bylaws in effect on that date the proposal is adopted that was not in the Amended and Restated Bylaws of Standard Silver Corporation (now known as Texas Rare Earth Resource Corporation) that became effective by written consent of the board of directors on September 8, 2008; (ii) remove without cause the following directors of the Company: James Graham, Graham Karklin, Gregory Martin and Marc LeVier; (iii) amended section 4.06 of the Amended and Restated Bylaws to provide that any vacancies on the board of directors resulting from the removal of directors by the shareholders of the Company pursuant to the solicited consents be filled exclusively by the shareholders of the Company and (iv) elect Dr. Philip Goodell, Dr. Nicholas Pingitore, John Tumazos, Cecil C. Wall and Dr. James R. Wolfe to serve as directors of the Company.

     
  • Analysts revise Alcoa forecasts downward

    July 5, 2012
    American Metal Market
    Suzy Waite

    http://www.amm.com/Article/3056703/Home/Analysts-revise-Alcoa-forecasts-downward.html

    John Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent Research LLC, agreed. "(Unfortunately), the reality is that the low ingot price is causing the entire company to be discounted when flat-rolled and engineered products are having record years," he said. "Those divisions are improving the value of the entire enterprise. And that's all lost in the aluminum price."

    "The dollar being stronger does lower costs in Australia, Brazil, and Europe due to the exchange rate. (But) the change in the dollar is less significant than the price of aluminum," Tumazos said. "The aluminum price has fallen more than the dollar has risen by a large margin."

     
  • Tough on steel: Makers barely breaking even as shares fall, supplies swell

    June 9, 2012
    Trib Live Business
    By Kim Leonard

    http://triblive.com/business/1944638-74/steel-prices-makers-market-analysts-bradford-based-million-production-added

    "From a volume standpoint, the steel business is quite good," said John Tumazos of Tumazos Very Independent Research of Holmdel, N.J.

    "A lot of capacity has been added in the U.S. -- I estimate 31.7 million tons has been added, or is being added, since 2007," while just two or three plants have closed, he said.

    Steel shipments could reach 97 million tons this year, compared to a peak of 109.5 million in 2006 and a low of 60.3 million in recession year 2009. "That suggests we're on our way back," Tumazos said.

     
  • Was Regent the heavy or the fall-guy for Barrick's missteps?

    June 7, 2012
    Mineweb
    By Dorothy Kosich

    http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page34?oid=152812&sn=Detail&pid=102055

    In an e-mail Wednesday to Mineweb, however, analyst John Tumazos of John Tumazos Very Independent Research suggested "certainly the market valuation of ABX has discounted its outlook. ABX trades at about a 25% discount to estimated NPV, and most gold stocks trade at a 25% or more premium."

    Tumazos told Mineweb, "Peter Munk was born November 8, 1927. God bless his longevity, but the appointment of such as distinguished co-chairman appears only prudent at age 84 ½."

    "The biggest challenge to Jamie Sokalsky's team will be to prune or kill projects," Tumazos advised. "Goldrush and the Turquoise Ridge open pit appear years better than Donlin Creek and Cerro Casale, and markets will rejoice if he puts the latter two projects on ice."

    Tumazos suggests, "A reasonable press release might read, ‘Engineering and construction costs in today's world are unreasonable, and we will not embark on any capital projects exceeding xxx billion dollars' where perhaps the maximum outlays should be $2 billion ‘brownfield expansions near current sites'".

    "Barrick's share price will rally after investors are convinced its projects will earn over 15% after tax returns without undue risks," Tumazos advised. "Its heavily discounted valuation reflects doubts that new mines will produce gold at state costs and, in effect, doubts that projects will earn suitable returns."

     
  • RG Steel's demise renews economic worries

    June 1, 2012
    Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
    By Len Boselovic

    http://www.post-gazette.com/stories/business/news/rg-steels-demise-renews-economic-worries-638426/

    "It's wonderful the steel market is as good as it is without non-residential construction and high imports," said John Tumazos, a Holmdel, N.J., metals analyst. "Autos, appliances and capital goods are steadily improving from the abysmal 2009."

    Mr. Tumazos said U.S. steel producers have only themselves to blame for the recent rise in imports. He said they were too aggressive in raising prices, which opened the door to lower-priced imports.

    Mr. Tumazos anticipates some of RG's equipment may run again, but not before a more robust economic recovery takes hold.
     
  • Xstrata Sets Vote on Merger

    May 31, 2012
    Wall Street Journal
    By John W. Miller and Alex Macdonald

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304821304577438730419542176.html

    The compensation package is prompting new complaints. "The retention bonus is like a lump sum paid to the fox for raiding the chicken coop," said John Tumazos, a New Jersey-based investment adviser who owns 19,000 shares in Xstrata, a U.K.-listed miner of copper, coal and other products.
  • Thompson Creek Mine suffers wall slough

    May 21, 2012
    American Metal Market
    By Thorsten Schier

    http://www.amm.com/Article/3033587/Thompson-Creek-Mine-suffers-wall-slough.html

    John Tumazos, analyst at Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC, said the event, which displaced about 300,000 tonnes of rock, will likely have a minor impact on the company's operations. "There may be no loss of revenue but some cost inefficiencies related to the cleanup or trucks, shovels, etc. 'standing by' for several days awaiting the cleanup's completion," he (Tumazos) told AMM in an email, adding that stockpiled ore should be able to cover the loss of material.

    The molybdenum market is not expected to be affected due to a recent softening in demand. "Our hunch, based on spot prices and world stainless output, is that many roasters have more finished product than they can sell anyway," Tumazos said.

  •  Coal, the Hot Commodity for Deals

    March 5, 2012
    Wall Street Journal
    John W. Miller and Kris Maher

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204059804577229123703258182.html?KEYWORDS=tumazos

    "Coking coal is scarce," said John Tumazos, an analyst with Very Independent Research LLC. who expects the M&A appetite for coal to continue in 2012. "There are folks willing to buy [companies] because of bullish demand and China, and folks willing to sell because of fears of carbon taxes and new environmental regulations," he said.
  • Aleris roadshow signals nearing IPO

    April 3, 2012
    American Metal Market
    by Suzy Waite

    http://www.amm.com/Article/3006617/Aleris-roadshow-signals-nearing-IPO.html

    The dropping price of aluminum, coupled with high global inventory levels, don't make an IPO of an aluminum company an appealing prospect at the moment, according to John Tumazos, analyst at Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC.

    "Maybe they'll raise half as many shares as they intended at two-thirds of the price," he (Tumazos) said. "If they get the deal done on schedule at the terms they promised, it would be a great achievement."

  • Hecla to Present at Very Independent Research Metals and Mining Conference in Boston

    Mar 20, 2012 08:00:03 (ET)

    COEUR D'ALENE, Idaho, Mar 20, 2012 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Hecla Mining Company's (
    HL, Trade ) Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer James A. Sabala will speak at the Very Independent Research Metals and Mining Conference in Boston on March 27 at 8:00 a.m. (EDT). Mr. Sabala will present an overview of Hecla's business strategy and its position as the largest North America-focused silver producer.

    A webcast of the presentation will be available at http://www.wsw.com/admin/spreadsheet/?vir9 as well as on Hecla's web site at Investors Home page. The slides used by Mr. Sabala will also be available in the Investor Relations section of Hecla's web site at www.hecla-mining.com , following his presentation.

    About Hecla

    Established in 1891, Hecla Mining Company has distinguished itself as the largest and lowest cash cost silver producer in the U.S. The company has two operating mines and exploration properties in four world-class silver mining districts in the U.S. and Mexico.

  • Ravenswood restart increasingly likely: analysts

    www.amm.com by Suzy Waite on March 2, 2012
    http://www.amm.com/Article/2988490/Ravenswood-restart-increasingly-likely-analysts.html

    "The economics of electricity are more attractive because of cheap natural gas prices," according to John Tumazos, analyst at Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC.

    However, the company needs more than a competitive power agreement-it also needs sustainably high aluminum prices, which Tumazos said might be a challenge until aluminum stocks at London Metal Exchange-listed warehouse-currently more than 5 million tonnes-come down

    "The power agreement to restart output, whether natural gas or coal, and the actual decision to restart output, are likely to depend on market conditions," he (Tumazos) said. "The warehouses are the next hurdle, and my sense is that Century will wait until inventories fall."

     

  • USS confirms Serbia sale, to record $400 M+ charge

    www.amm.com by Michael Cowden http://www.amm.com/pdf/AMMDaily01-31-12.pdf?LS=EMS609149


    U.S. Steel's facilities in Serbia are surrounded by steelmaking assets in the Czech and Slovak republics, Italy, Germany, Poland, Russia, Ukraine, and Turkey, said John Tumazos, analyst at Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC, noting that the location was a challenge.  "you could ship south Greece, but Greece is dead."

    "The only good thing about losing $400 million to $450 million is that the first digit wasn't a six or a seven instead."--John Tumazos, Very Independent Research.
     

  • Xstrata Investors May Balk

    Wall Street Journal February 7, 2012 by Dana Cimilluca http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203315804577207292473999200.html?mod=googlenews_wsj  

    John Tumazos, an investment adviser specializing in mining and metals in Holmdel, N.J., owns 19,000 shares of Xstrata. Like many shareholders in the Switzerland-based firm, he sees uncounted value in Xstrata's status as an actual "dig-up-rocks" miner with premium assets, which he and others contrast to Glencore's smaller mining portfolio and reliance on global trading operations.

    Mr. Tumazos said he is holding out for an exchange ratio of 4-to-1. "This deal is like the Super Bowl, except it's going to go more than 60 minutes."
     

  • USS confirms Serbia sale, will record charge

    www.AMM.com by Michael Cowden  http://www.amm.com/Article/2970097/USS-confirms-Serbia-sale-will-record-charge.html

    U.S. Steel’s facilities in Serbia are surrounded by steelmaking assets in the Czech and Slovak republics, Italy, Germany, Poland, Russia, Ukraine and Turkey, said John Tumazos, analyst at Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC, noting that the location was a challenge. "You could ship south to Greece, but Greece is dead."
     

  • US Steel mum on Serbia venture

    Pittsburgh Post Gazette by Len Boselovic

    "I don't think Serbian politicians are better metallurgists than U.S. Steel," said John C. Tumazos, a Holmdel, N.J., industry analyst. "It appears the Serbian government had a hard time swallowing the business decision to reduce output in the current climate."
     

  • Alcoa gives positive aluminum outlook

    Reuters.com by Steve James and Ernest Scheyder http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/10/us-alcoa-idUSTRE80826Z20120110

    "It's never good to see a loss, but some of this could have been worse," said John Tumazos, an analyst with VeryIndependentResearch.com.
     

  • Aluminum price dip may trigger buys

    AMM.com by Suzy Walte December 16, 2011

    "Take Century (Aluminum Co's) Ravenswood (smelter in West Virginia).  This would not be the perfect week to restart it, or to conclude a new power agreement," John Tumazos, principal at Very Independent Research LLC told AMM.
     

  • Quadra Sale suggest bearish outlook: analysts

    AMM.com by Chris Prentice December 15, 2011

    http://www.amm.com/Article/2950065/Quadra-sale-suggests-bearish-outlook-analysts.html?ArticleId=2950065

    Others agreed. John Tumazos, analyst at Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC, said he was not surprised by the deal. "This is probably a good deal, and analysts just don’t know it (yet)," Tumazos told AMM. "The management (at Quadra) obviously don’t believe the copper price is going to be as high as analysts believe. Maybe they are a little nervous about Europe and the U.S."
     

  • Texas Rare Earth to Present at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals & Mining Conference
  • Val d'Or mine shut down over safety

    The Montreal Gazette October 19, 2011 by Peter Koven

    http://www.montrealgazette.com/gold+mine+shut+down+over+safety/5572996/story.html#ixzz1bKTvDmEt

    “My impression was that of the five mines Agnico built at once, Goldex was the one that hit the volume, the operating cost, the capital cost,” independent analyst John Tumazos said.

     

  • Rio Tinto selling aluminum assets in cost-cut move

    October 18, 2011 by Suzy Walte www.Amm.com

  • US mart seen unlikely to nix stainless extra

    October 10, 2011 by Thorsten Schier www.Amm.com

    "In the past, when there were fixed prices, it was during years of low or no nickel price volatility. In periods of very high volatility, it’s an appropriate system," according to John Tumazos, principal of Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J.
     

  • Aluminum suppliers have upper hand for '12

    September 6, 2011 by Suzy White www.Amm.com

    Very Independent Research LLC’s John Tumazos is more optimistic. "We don’t think countries doing badly in the world matter," he said, predicting that global auto sales will break records of 74 million units or more this year.
     

  • USW workers say no to Allegheny Ludlum pact

    http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/11208/1163098-28-2.stm

  • Augen Gold Engages John Tumazos Very Independent Opinions, LLC for Asset Valuation

    GLD PR 110426 Augen Gold Engages John Tumazos Very Independent Opinions LLC for Asset Valuation.pdf
     

  • JOHN TUMAZOS, VERYINDEPENDENTRESEARCH.COM, NEW JERSEY

    "All four businesses did well. That's a bit unusual for everything to do well. But all four segments did better than any quarter last year, with alumina being almost twice the average quarter of last year.

    "Flat rolled could easily be squeezed by rising ingot prices. So it was particularly good that it had its best quarter in a while.

    "Primary (aluminum) in March was better than in December, and should improve much more. Ingot should be a good bit better in the second quarter than the first, and alumina is indexed to ingot. So the company should be happy in the outlook on their conference call."

    Reuters.com 4/11/2011
     

  • Renco mill restart plan stirs market concerns
     
    http://www.amm.com/Article/2780008/Renco-mill-restart-plan-stirs-market-concerns.html

    John Tumazos, principal of Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J., offered a similar view, pointing out that the flat-rolled market has strengthened, buoyed by increased production and demand from the automotive sector.

    "I think it’s very encouraging that automotive sales were up 27 percent in February to 13.4 million units," he said. "That (unit figure) is still 20 percent below pre-recession levels. What you have then is a market that is smaller against capacity that is increasing. It’s (capacity from RG Steel) a competing presence against capacity coming online from ThyssenKrupp and others. It looks like a deconsolidation of companies that were put together in 2006, 2007 and 2008."
     

  • ATI announces its president to take over as chief executive
     
    By Joe Napsha, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette March 1, 2011

    http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/business/s_725135.html
     

  • ATI Ceo Hassey to retire May 1
     
    By Len Boselovic, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette March 1, 2011

    http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/11060/1128718-28.stm
     

  • Deep Possibilities
     

    John Tumazos, a longtime metals analyst who operates John Tumazos Very Independent Research, notes Xstrata trades at a 10% discount to its coal and copper assets, leaving its fixed-asset development investments and other mineral groups essentially free. Tumazos recently raised his price target on Xstrata to $33 a share from $28, based on a discounted cash-flow model. That would represent a 50% increase from the $21.90 its shares recently fetched in New York. The shares trade primarily in London under the ticker XTA.

     
  • US steel exports forecast to rise on weak dollar, demand surge
     
    By Maria Guzzo, February 16, 2011

    John Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J., told AMM the December pullback ma y have been a

    factor of higher prices.

    "When domestic mills raise prices sky high, imports rise and exports fall," he said. "So December appeared to be beginning to show that effect with a 100,000-ton increase in imports and a 100,000-ton decrease in exports."
     

  • First Coverage Article
     
  • Barron's Article

    PDF Download
     

  • Instant view: Alcoa Q4 profits tops Wall Street

     http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE7095VZ20110110?pageNumber=2 January 10, 2011
     
    JOHN TUMAZOS, PRESIDENT OF VERYINDEPENDENT RESEARCH IN

    HOLMDEL, NEW JERSEY

    "What really knocked my socks off was when they said they're projecting 12 percent demand growth for 2011. I don't think there's enough aluminum in the world..."

    "In order to get a 12 percent growth rate in 2011, the world auto industry would have to be very strong, and each region of the world would have to be very strong. China would have to have enough electricity to make aluminum and use aluminum, and construction would need to recover in various regions: stay strong in China, and rebound in the U.S."

    "The (beverage) cans are never going to grow that much, unless somebody starts drinking really hard somewhere in the world."
     

  • USS, Kobe commit $400 M to Pro-Tec

    By Corinna Petry www.AMM.com December 2, 2010

    John Tumazos, analyst of Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J., said he expects U.S. Steel and Kobe to have, at the very least, "a strong assurance from an important customer that they will pay them more for high-quality heat treating. You don't spend $400 million on a wink and a nod."
     

  • Teck press release speaking on November 9, 2010 at JTVIR Metals Conference

    Press Release

     
  • Klondex To Review Nevada High-Grade Gold Program at Tumazos Metals & Mining Conference Wednesday, November 10th at 2:20 P.M.

    Press Release

     
  • Letter to the Editor: SDCO outlay much ado about nothing

    www.AMM.com Hans Mueller July 26, 2010

    Brebach and John Tumazos (senior analyst at Very Independent Research LLC) have pointed out why John Correnti's SDCO project is too insignificant to deserve congressional attention
     

  • Iron ore surcharge said failing to gain traction

    www.AMM.com By Scott Robertson July 16, 2010
     
    Analyst John Tumazos of Very Independent Research said that AK has a history of "tedious negotiations with GM. It has happened that way many times. U.S. Steel and (Arcelor)Mittal, for whatever reason, have not had that problem."

    Tumazos believes that surcharges, first floated in stainless steel and then instituted by carbon steel mini-mills in April 2004 to deal with fluctuating scrap costs, eventually will be a thing of the past.

    "It is possible that for both good and bad reasons surcharges either confuse or eventually lose credibility with customers," he said. "The concept of surcharges has been wearing itself out with customers." He referred to remarks by an executive of Bloomfield, Colo.-based packaging company Ball Corp., who once referred to aluminum can makers as "that thin strip of meat" between aluminum companies and consumers.

    "Similarly, I believe the steel business is maybe a slightly thicker strip of meat between the three iron ore producers and the large auto companies like Toyota and GM," Tumazos said. "If the ore and coal companies go to quarterly contracts and the mini-mills are adjusting monthly for scrap, the integrated mills will need to not have long-term fixed contracts like they had in the '80s."

    They'll need to adjust quickly, whether they call it a surcharge or not, he said. "In fact, it might be better not to call it a surcharge, because such a word has worn out the patience of customers."
     

  • Alcoa

    Reuters.com July 12, 2010

    John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC
     
    "The results were a little better than expected. Each of their four reporting segments did well. It appeared in particular that their capital spending and cost-reduction programs were working smoothly. None of the four segments dropped the ball."
     
  • Letter to the Editor: SOCO will create American jobs, boost US tax revenues

    www.amm.com by John C Tumazos July 7, 2010

    full report
     
  • Cliffs buying met coal assets in West Virginia

    www.amm.com by Maria Guzzo July 6, 2010

    John Tumazos, partner at Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J., said what Cliffs has doing in acquiring chromite ores in Canada is "brilliant," but he is less excited about the INR purchase. "It's a complicated set of variables," he said, including a mix of met and thermal coal, the relatively small current coal production and the ratio of production to reserves. "But there may be more here th an meets the eye."
     
  • Latrobe Specialty Steel said mulling IPO within next 2 years

    www.amm.com by Maria Guzzo June 24, 2010

    John Tumazos, partner at Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J., said Latrobe is a smaller company than Carpenter Technology Corp., Haynes International Inc. or Allegheny Technologies Inc., all of which also produce specialty metals.

    "Trading near $36 (per share on Thursday), Carpenter Technologies is well below its peak 2007 valuation of $75 per share or mid-range 2006-07 values near $60 per share," he said. "Probably Latrobe is worth something similarly less than peak values similar to Carpenter Technologies."
     

  • Noranda slashes IPO share price on weak aluminum market

    www.amm.com by Anne Riley May 13, 2010

    The decision by Noranda's majority owner, New York-based investment fund Apollo Management LP, to reduce the size of the offering may have done the stock a disservice, said John Tumazos, analyst with Very Independent Research LLC.

    "It doesn't communicate vitality that they cut the price 44 percent," he said. "It's a sign of weakness and it suggests some discomfort, like they don't have confidence in their electricity supplier or maybe they don't like the bauxite and alumina business that Century (Aluminum Corp.) paid them $10 million to take. It's not a good sign when your partner pays you $10 million to take (an asset). My hunch is that something in this transaction gives Apollo indigestion."
     

  • Apollo unlikely to face antitrust hurdles

    www.amm.com by Anne Riley May 7, 2010

    John Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent Research LLC, agreed that as long as Apollo isn't Aleris' primary owner, there shouldn't be a problem. "A reasonable defense that Apollo could mount is that Apollo no longer controls Aleris after the bankruptcy filing, that Aleris is controlled by a bankruptcy judge or at least reports to one, and that the ownership of Aleris is transferred to the creditors. So the antitrust objection is not a strong one," he said. "Apollo is part of the pie but they're no longer the whole pie."
     

  • Noranda public offering doubt as stock market tumbles

    www.amm.com By Anne Riley May 7, 2010
     

    John Tumazos, analyst with Very Independent Research LLC, agreed that the market is no longer prime for a Noranda IPO. "The financial markets are in a collapse led by cyclical stocks," he said. "Let's just say (the number of possible) investors are going down 3 percent a day because the stock market is going down 3 percent a day. I would expect that the majority of their appointments are getting canceled."
     
  • Analysts: Slumping demand why Franklin paper mill closing

    www.istockanalyst.com by Philip Walzer April 11 ,2010

    John Tumazos, who runs Very Independent Research in New Jersey, isn't so sure.

    "I don't think that 'hope' was a business alternative," Tumazos said last week, "but I think there's a choice."
     

  • Apollo seen as main contender for Alcan rolled assets

    www.amm.com By David Brooks April 16, 2010
     

    John Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent Research LLC, raised similar concerns. "I don't think the business is particularly flush with cash to go out and make a big acquisition," he previously told AMM.
     
  • Vale Inco strike could linger despite union pact, higher nickel prices

    www.amm.com By Tom Jennemann April 9, 2010
     

    John Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent Research LLC, said the office staff labor deal won't impact the position of production workers.
     
  • Alcoa to demolish two idled aluminum smelters in US

    www.amm.com By Anne Riley April 6, 2010
     

    "Electricity and fuel are cyclical, so when the (smelters) were idled the company may have held out a hope that a better opportunity could occur to bring them back," according to John Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent Research LLC. "I would imagine .?.?. that they have been hoping that circumstances would change, which hasn't transpired."
     
  • Novelis is free to enter aerospace, but will it?

    www.amm.com By Anne Riley March 8, 2010
     

    "There have been over-expansions," John Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent Research LLC, said.
     
  • SSAB scales down plant for Alabama

    www.amm.com By Corinna Petry February 11, 2010
     

    John Tumazos, president of Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J., said the classic application for QT plate is to transmit natural gas from Alaska and Canada to the lower 48 states.

    "Because of the natural gas surplus in the U.S. and the huge reserves found in (oil shale fields in) West Virginia, New York, Penn sylvania, Texas, Oklahoma and Louisiana, there is a chance that these (trans-Canadian) pipelines don't get built or not as quickly," he said. In addition, electricity use in the United States last year "was 4.7 percent less than in 2007, so the use of natural gas and coal for power generation has diminished."
     

  • Instant View: Alcoa reports narrower loss

    www.reuters.com Monday Jan 11, 2010 http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE60A54O20100111
     

    JOHN TUMAZOS, PRESIDENT, VERYINDEPENDENTRESEARCH.COM

    "It was a bit surprising that they broke even excluding the 28-cent charges. They say they had special charges, and if you take that out they nearly broke even including discontinued operations.

    "It appears that costs rose faster than prices. Or that some of the cost gains in the first half of 2009 were due to exogenous factors like currency shifts, lower energy prices, lower metal prices and now some of those exogenous factors are going against them while the metal price is going for them."
     

  • Update 3- Alcoa misses street estimate shares fall

     Monday Jan 11, 2010 by Steve James www.reuters.com http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN1115520120100112
     

    "It appears that costs rose faster than prices," said John Tumazos, president of veryindependentresearch.com.

    "Or that some of the cost gains in the first half of 2009 were due to exogenous factors like currency shifts, lower energy prices, lower metal prices and now some of those exogenous factors are going against them while the metal price is going (up) for them."
     

  • Thompson Creek raises cost estimates for Endako

    AMM.com by Anne Riley December 7, 2009

    John Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent Research LLC, said it was unlikely that Sojitz would pull out of the project.

    "Sojitz just contributed C$180 million ($170.9 million) to buy 25 percent of the Gibraltar mine from Taseko Mines (Ltd.), so I'm assuming that Sojitz knows the Endako expansion was contemplated and is prepared for it. I don't think Sojitz is a risk," he said. Sojitz bought the stake in the Gibraltar copper and molybdenum mine last week
     

  • Century to restart construction of Iceland smelter

    AMM.com November 19, 2009

    NEW YORK -- Century Aluminum Co. is set to restart construction at its greenfield smelter in Helguvik, Iceland, in the spring of 2010 and is targeting first production by 2012, a top executive said.

    Work at the Helguvik smelter site was effectively put on hold late last year due to tightening credit markets, low aluminum prices and the collapse of the Icelandic economy. Conditions in the credit and aluminum markets have since improved and Century is prepared to proceed with full-scale construction, Mike Bless, chief financial officer, said at a Metals and Mining investor conference in New York hosted by Knight Capital Group Inc. and John Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC, according to a Webcast of the event.

    Monterey, Calif.-based Century plans to build the smelter in four phases of 90,000 tonnes each, for a final annual capacity of 360,000 tonnes. The first phase will cost about $600 million, according to Bless.
     

  • Aluminum price rally may drive Century to restart Ravenswood

    AMM.com by Anne Riley October 26, 2009

    Independent analyst John Tumazos said he found the ta lk of a Ravenswood restart surprising. "I would have thought it more logical to restart the idled line at Hawesville (Ky.) if there were to be a first step at Century," he said.

    Although today's lower energy input prices and possible union concessions could mean an improvement in Ravenswood's costs, the plant might bring in the most money for Century if it were to be sold, Tumazos said.

    "The Ravenswood plant is a much more formidable asset empty and cold without a work force. If they let it sit five years and sold it to some new company with no obligation to a labor contract and start fresh, it would in my opinion be the fullest value of the asset," he said, estimating that the plant, "sold cold," could bring in some $300 million.
     

  • Noranda profitable as output climbs

    AMM.com by Anne Riley October 26, 2009

    Another challenge in store for Noranda is the profusion of new aluminum capacity expected to enter the global market next year, sources said. According to John Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent Research LLC, the world could see some 10 percent more smelter output, or an increase of some 1.5 million tonnes, in 2010, which could put some strain on higher-cost Western producers.

    "If you get subs tantial restarts in the U.S. and Europe, where production has been reduced, then you need a higher threshold, more than 10-percent demand growth, to keep inventories even, just even," Tumazos said.
     

  • Ohio politician hints at interest in some Severstal NA plants

    AMM.com by Scott Robertson October 23, 2009

    Independent analyst John Tumazos is one who believes there is potential in Severstal's North American operations, perhaps with the conversion of some facilities into merchant pig iron producers.

    In a recent research note, he characterized reports by AMM and others claiming "sales book" offers for the Russian steelmaker's five North American mills as "sensational," adding that "some commentary appears to exaggerate (the) potential demise" of Severstal.

    "We believe Severstal has numerous fine financing alternatives should the current recession grow worse, including (a) selling more public common stock in the Severstal parent, (b) an IPO (initial public offering) of Severstal Resources, (c) an IPO of Severstal North America, (d) selected asset sales or (e) a hybrid format of the four U.S. integrated plants between sheet and merchant pig iron strategies," Tumazos said, estimating that Severstal's 8 million tons of pig iron capacity, 4 million tons of coatings capacity, its Columbus, Miss., electric furnace mill and coal, coke and corrugating are worth $5 billion.
     

  • Despite Positive results Alcoa faces challenges

    AMM.com by Anne Riley 10/8/2009

    John Tumazos an analyst at Very Independent Research LLC, also pointed to currency fluctuations as a key factor for Alcoa. "Alcoa's break-even point appeared to rise 3 to 5 cents a pound in the third quarter due to the appreciation of their production cost currencies," he said. "I think Alcoa is doing everything diligent and wonderful but they can't control the Australian dollar," which has shot up recently against the greenback.
     

  • What Stimulus?
     

    American Metal Market by Maria Guzzo October 2009

    John Tumazos an analyst with Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, NJ, was even less optimistic that ARRA will benefit the steal industry. "Any expectation of a substantial impact on particular steel shapes or products probably won't be fulfilled," he said. "I think most of these initiatives are going to get crowded out by various social welfare programs and the need to pay schoolteachers, policemen, firemen, and government officials," Tumazos said.
     

  • Metals complex holds aluminum back

    AMM.com by Anne Riley September 29, 2009

    "There was never a shortage of aluminum this decade," said John Tumazos, an analyst at Very Independent Research LLC. "There always was a large amount in LME warehouses, where copper, nickel, lead and zinc almost fell to zero."

    Granted, some of that metal is locked up in financing deals-as much as 90 percent, according to some accounts-but regardless, "the aluminum exists," Tumazos said. "It surprises me that people are so cavalier to how quickly 5 million tonnes will disappear."
     

  • Always on the Mend
     

    American Metal Market August/September 2009 issue byTom Jennemann

    John Tumazos, an analyst at Very Independent Research LLc, told AMM that extruders likely will have only about two thirds of the business they had before the industry's downturn.

     


  •  

    From the Associated Press July 8, 2009
     

    John Tumazos, an industry analyst, said of Alcoa's latest results:  "They did good."
     
    The company lost considerably less money on ventures in China and Russia than in the past, and it gathered contributions from operations in Iceland and Norway, he said.  Alcoa should have a positive cash flow in the third quarter, Tumazos added.

     

  • TK may cancel plans to melt stainless in Ala.
     

    www.AMM.com by Maria Guzzo July 8, 2009

    "The latter case would be great news for ATI, AK or Acerinox (NAS)," John Tumazos, analyst with Very Independent Research, Holmdel, N.J., said. "In this scenario, ThyssenKrupp would be content to operate Mexinox in San Luis Potosi (Mexico) as a standalone unit, accepting stainless hot-rolled coil from Europe, without any U.S. link."

     

  • Steelmakers face battle as antitrust suit proceeds
     

    www.AMM.com by Maria Guzzo June 16, 2009

    Independent steel industry analyst John Tumazos also expects the steel litigation to take years, noting that the steel case resembles one in the container board industry where similar coincidental production cuts were made
     

  • Steel output rise sign of life, but will it last?
     

    www.AMM.com by Scott Robertson June 12, 2009

    John Tumazos, analyst at Independent Research LLC, said several factors appear to be in play in pushing utilization rates higher. He cited the recent upward move in crude oil prices to again breach $70 per barrel, a move that should spark increased oil drilling activity. And steel inventories in general have been reduced over the past several months, leading service center customers to increase orders slightly in recent weeks, he said.
     

  • US aluminum output dips further in May
     

    www.AMM.com by June 10, 2009

     

    But U.S. aluminum output still has further to fall, according to analyst John Tumazos of Very Independent Research LLC. "A 37-percent cut in U.S. aluminum output is a deep, deep cut, but autos and housing are down even more. They're going to have to cut further unless all of a sudden auto sales and housing figures rebound," he said, noting that such a turnaround is quite unlikely in the near-term.

     

  • Cliff's buffered from pellet tag drop: analysts
     

    www.AMM.com by Mick Bowen June 10, 2009

     

    John Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent Research LLC, pointed out the two steel markets that primarily use pellets-North America and Europe-are also the two markets where output was hardest hit by the economic crisis. In the United States, for exampl e, the capability utilization rate averaged 47.1 percent last week compared with 91.1 percent in the corresponding week last year, according to numbers from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AMM, June 10).
     

  • Lower demand imperils domestic steelmakers: Analysts predict permanent closure of some U.S. mills
     

    http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/09156/975244-28.stm The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette by Len Boselovic June 5, 2009

    Analyst John C. Tumazos, of Very Independent Research in Holmdel, N.J., forecasts U.S. mills will ship 57 million tons this year, down from 98 million last year and 106 million in 2007.

     

  • China Probes Imports of U.S. Steel
     

    http://online.wsj.com/search?KEYWORDS=Tumazos&mod=DNH_S By Kris Maher June 2, 2009

    "I'm assuming that the prices into China were new sales at spot prices that were escalating," said John Tumazos, a metals analyst who heads Very Independent Research LLC.
     

  • "Buy American" among factors limiting imports
     

    www.AMM.com by Corinna Petry May 29, 2009

    "There is very low domestic demand for steel. Second, when the demand transitions to stimulus programs, they will be 'Buy America' (orders) and not imported. Third, domestic prices have been falling," independent steel industry analyst John Tumazos said. "I believe that high domestic steel prices cause imports and, as domestic mill operating rates remained in the low 40 (percent range), prices fell enough to discourage imports."
     

  • Cliffs' iron ore contract prices seen falling 10%
     

    AMM.com by Mick Bowen May 29, 2009

     

    According to John Tumazos, a steel analyst at John Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC, the structure of the local steel market and its recent woes mean the international negoti ations will have little direct impact on North America.
     

  • US aluminum demand still feeling for bottom
     

    www.AMM.com by Tom Jennemann May 12, 2009

    John Tumazos, an analyst at Very Independent Research LLC, said that aluminum demand is about the same as it was last month. "The packaging portion of the aluminum market is stable but the auto market was down 34 percent in April and construction activity is poor," Tumazos said. "Also, virtually no money has flowed from the federal programs. It's sad that the exchange inventories rise 10,000 to 20,000 tonnes every day. Aluminum companies need to cut production more, unfortunately."
     

  • Credit pains to linger; plan well, metals told
     

    www.AMM.com by Maria Guzzo May 8, 2009

    Independent steel industry analyst John Tumazos said he was impressed that U.S. Steel raised twice as much as originally intended, and they did it in 24 hours.

    "Commercial banks are still sucking their thumbs, but stock market money is coming off the sidelines," he said. "Money can be obtained from public or private stock and bond sales. But the commercial lending area from banks is still difficult."
     

  • Analysts applaud Nyrstar's Tenn. buy
     

    AMM.com by Mick Bowen May 6, 2009

     

  • Steel distributor Certified set to go solar at N.J. plant
     

    www.AMM.com by Corinna Petry May 5, 2009

     

  • ISRI CONVENTION: Commodities boom masked aluminum glut, Tumazos says
     

    AMM.com by Michael MArley May 1, 2009


    Tumazos, of John Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC, criticized aluminum producers outside of China, saying they produced more metal than Western markets needed. "The aluminum producers misjudged demand and built capacity to serve phantom buyers," he said.

     

  • ArcelorMittal tries EU price freeze, expects stable May
     

    Platts Steel Markets Daily by Julien Hall with Joe Innace in New York April 16, 2009


    “This is humorous,” said analyst John
    Tumazos of Very Independent Research. “A
    supplier ‘price freeze’ in a very strong market,
    such as one to three years ago, is
    enforceable as it would be a form of ‘self
    restraint,’ he wrote in an e-mail to Platts.
    “A supplier ‘price freeze’ with world steel
    output down about 23%, or nearly 50% outside
    China, is a little bit like trying to stop
    the flow of Niagara Falls,” he quipped.

     

  • Aluminum market continues to falter
     

    amm.com  by Tom Jennemann April 14, 2009 

     

    But the month-on-month increase is somewhat deceptive as it's based on a calendar month and isn't adjusted for the actual number of working days. It is also the normal seasonal pattern for demand to improve sequentially as winter ends, according to John Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent Research LLC.

     

     

  • Steel import, export price indicies drop
     

    Amm.com by Corinna Petry April 9, 2009

    "Imports and exports of everything, not just steel, are falling worldwide because there is less need for trade in a recession as countries are more self reliant and less willing to buy," said independent metals industry analyst John Tumazos. "High prices cause imports, (but domestic steel prices have fallen to around $400 per ton for many products) so now steel imports are relatively low-1.5 million tons per month or less-because domestic producers have cut prices."

  • Alcoa reports $497M loss in 1Q on lower prices
     

    Associated Press April 7, 2009 by Daniel Lovering http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EARNS_ALCOA?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

     

    Analysts point to the excess supplies of aluminum worldwide and say further production cuts are needed to match falling orders. Industry analyst John Tumazos said the actual market decline will be twice as much as Alcoa projected.

     

     

  • 6 months after USW deal, steel is in a slump
     

    Pittsburgh Post-Gazette by Leo Boselovic http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/09088/958881-435.stm

     

  • Alcoa unveils new cuts, changes margin policy
     

    American Metal market by tom Jenneman Mar 16, 2009 http://amm.com/2009-03-16__17-16-36.html

     

    "When aluminum prices were higher and margins big, there may have been a tendancy to provide a lot of services free or, in this case, provide credit or hedging support," said analyst John  Tumazos of Very Independent Research LLC.

     

  • Aluminum sheet, plate shipments inch higher
     

    American Metal market by Tom Jennemann March 3, 2009

     

    That optimism wasn't shared by analyst John Tumazos of Very Independent Research LLC, who said that it would be premature to assume that a month-on-month uptick in January's sheet and plate shipments signals a bottom for aluminum demand.

     

  • DLA seeks better steel 'Warstopper' response
     

    American Metal Market by Mick Bowen March 9, 2009

     

    John Tumazos, analyst with Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J. said the DLA letter nay be nothing out of the ordinary.  "I don't think they've run out of anything," he said.  "None of the basic large volume industrial materials are in low supply and we have the prices to show that's true."
     

  • USS' Minntac Mine set for hit, III. cuts grow
     

    American Metal Market by Mick Bowen

     

    "It's an unfortunate and natural response to end markets," independent steel analyst John Tumazos said, citing a 50-percent drop in car manufacturing and an 80-percent fall in new housing starts, among other factors.

     

  • Parts makers may not suffer full impact of auto cutbacks
     

    American metal Market by Anne Riley http://www.amm.com/2009-02-18__18-04-34.html

     

    "If it's a transplant vehicle, most of the steel and components will be American.  we're really talking about how the pie is divided and how much of the sales the Big Three lose," independent steel industry analyst John Tumazos said.

     

  • Aluminum picks up old script with talk of MoU
     

    American Metal Market By Tom Jennemann http://www.amm.com/2009-02-05__16-59-35.html

     

    "The MoU approach may be the only solution to the aluminum mess," said analyst John Tumazos of Very Independent Research, LLC.  "It solved the problem 15 years ago and the inventories on commodity exchanges are 700,000 tonnes higher today than they were at the peak in 1994, when you factor in (the) Shanghai (futures exchange) and Comex (division of the New York Mercantile exchange)"

     

  • AMM State of Steel '09: Premium metalics prices up from the bottom: Midrex
     

    http://www.galwayresources.com/s/NewsReleases.asp?ReportID=337122

     

  • AMM State of Steel '09: Premium metalics prices up from the bottom: Midrex
     

    American Metal Market  by  Michael Bowen http://www.amm.com/2009-01-26__14-22-05.html


    Analyst John Tumazos from Very Independent Research, LLC said blast furnace operators would turn to high grade iron ore in a market currently characterized by lower prices and higher surpluses. "The usage per ton will fall as the grade improves," he said, adding that shipping less ore translates into lower freight costs, while using higher-grade ore lowers coal and coke use and improves blast furnace productivity.

     

  • Freeport-McMoran results top view, shares up
     

    Reuters by  Steve James http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/reuters/MTFH75123_2009-01-26_16-12-03_N26370152.htm

     

    "When purchase accounting values are written off they never get written back," said independent metals analyst John Tumazos. "So, what they wrote off today will never come back."

     

  • Thompson Creek may be mulling buy: analysts

     

    American Metal Market by  Mick Bowen http://amm.com/2008-12-05__15-30-54.html

     

    Independent analyst John Tumazos said there was a chance Thompson Creek could use cash on hand to acquire any one of a half dozen molybdenum projects, but added it was just as likely the company hold on to it in case the price of molybdenum got worse. Molybdenum oide is currently selling for $9 to 410 a pound, while it averaged $30 a pound in 2007 and $33 a pound in the first nine months of this year. 

     

  • Alcoa Searches for Fresh Start in Troubled Market
     

    Wall Street Journal Wed. December 3, 2008 page B4.  by Robert Guy Mathews

     

    John Tumazos an analyst with Very Independent Research, said the company has few good options as its influence in the commodity world is nowhere as sure as it once was.  "They need to idle more smelters than they have cut," he said.

  • (BN) Freeport Cuts Molybdenum Output on `Sharp' Price Drop
     

    By Stewart Bailey
     

  • Smaller nickel miners facing an uphill road
     

    By Michael Cowden October 28, 2008 http://amm.com/2008-10-28__18-37-45.html

    Independent analyst John Tumazos also doubted there would be a wave of consolidation, but said smaller producers could become insolvent and eventually fail.  "Nobody in the nickel business makes money at $4.50 a pound," he said.

     

  • Nickel premiums steady despite lull
     

    By Michael Cowden October 24, 2008 http://amm.com/2008-10-24__17-15-45.html

    Independent mining analyst John Tumazos said current prices don't justify energy and chipping costs in many cases.  however, LME stockpiles amount to less than 3 percent of world usage, he pointed out, adding that many stainless steelmakers have been destocking since the second half of 2006.
     

  • NY group is kicking tires at former McLouth Steel
     

    By Michael Cowden October 16, 2008  http://amm.com/2008-10-16__17-44-48.html
     

    Still, despite all the economic gloom and doom, the site's infrastructure and potentially generous government incentives could make restarting the former mill a good idea, independent industry analyst  John Tumazos said.

     

  • Delay in Rio asset sale to bolster BHP bid
     

    By Tom Jennemann October 15, 2008 http://www.amm.com/2008-10-15__18-31-08.html
     

    But not everyone sees the divestment delay as a negative for the Anglo-Australian mining giant.  "The drop in oil prices almost cuts resin feedstock costs in half.  Whatever the packaging business was worth on July 3 as oil peaked, it's probably worth 25 percent more today because their profit margins should be much larger because the squeezes are alleviated," said independent metals analyst John tumazos.  "Delaying the sale because of finanical markets could be clever and a sign of strength and not weakness, particularly as it relates to the packaging (unit)."
     

  • Analysts mixed on financial crisis impact on steel M&As
     

    By Maria Guzzo October 7, 2008 http://www.amm.com/2008-10-07__10-38-35.html 
     

    Independent steel analyst John Tumazos also is pessimistic about more mergers and acquisitions occurring anytime soon.  "Steelmakers just got kicked out of 'paradise'," he said, noting that acquisitions will be a lower priority going forward.

     

  • Surma, Mital optimistic on M&As; investors not
     

    By Maria Guzzo October 7, 2008 http://www.amm.com/stories/story.asp?file=/2008-10-07__16-48-14.xml 
     

    Independent steel analyst John Tumazos also is pessimistic about more mergers and acquisitions occurring anytime soon.  "Steelmakers just got kicked out of 'paradise'," he said, noting that acquisitions will be a lower priority going forward.
     

  • Output cuts widen as mills react to slowdown
     

    By Scott Robertson October 3, 2008 http://www.amm.com/stories/story.asp?file=/2008-10-03__16-53-34.xml
     

    The lack of steel orders is a cause for concern among mills as they eye production cuts, according to John Tumazos, principal for Very Independent Research, LLC, Holmdel, N.J.

     

  • SDI mulling flat-roll mill, may target auto: Busse
     

    By Scott Robertson September 15, 2008 http://www.amm.com/2008-09-15__17-41-50.html
     

    "SDI earns slightly better margins and returns than its competitors," John Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J., said.  "there is always room for the best player," he added.

     

  • Labor deal "expensive" for U.S. Steel
     

    By Scott Robertson August 25, 2008 http://amm.com/2008-08-25__19-29-35.html
     

    John Tumazos analyst at Very Independent Research, Holmdel, N.J. said investors may be calculating that growth in other steel production is about to slow due to a drop in global demand.  there is some evidence that tightness in the market for steelmaking could be easing, he said.
     

  • USW-ArcelorMittal talks halt; strike said unlikely
     

    By Maria Guzzo Aug 11, 2008 http://amm.com/2008-08-11__19-49-46.html
     

    The cost of steel these days could also impact market movements, John Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J. said.

     

  • SeverCorr shift in scrap mix a "natural" process
     

    By Michael Cowden August 6, 2008 http://amm.com/2008-08-06__19-14-33.html
     

    No. 1 bundles and  No. 1 busheling prices currently stand at a premium to other grades of steel scrap in the United States and steel mills could be using other grades to avoid the high tags, according to John Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J.

     

  • ArcelorMittal said eyeing Alpha bid trumping Cliffs
     

    By Maria Guzzo August 1, 2008 http://amm.com/stories.asp?file=/2008-08-01__21-00-28.xml 
     

    "ArcelorMittal has expressed a goal to be more self-sufficient in metallurgical coal and iron ore," John Tumazos, an analyst with Very Independent Research, LLC, Holmdel, N.J. said.  "It may be that Mittal considers Alpha to be much more attractive than the typical met coal opportunity around the globe.

     

  • Teck's $13.8B deal to buy Fording Feeds M&A fever

     

    By Maria Guzzo July 29, 2008 American Metal Market http://amm.com/2008-07-29__19-35-57.html
     

    Steelmakers worldwide will be largely unaffected because the existing combination of ownership of supply and management will be maintained, John Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J. said.

     

  • Cliffs risks going from hunter to buyout target

     

    By Maria Guzzo July 25, 2008 American Metal Market http://amm.com/stories.asp?file=/2008-07-25__20-24-08.xml
     

    Analyst John Tumazos of John Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J. said he, too, understands Harbinger's actions.  "Shareholders own pieces of paper and sometimes they just assume the piece of paper is going to be the same," he said.  "It's always possible investors at Harbinger thought they were buying mostly into iron ore and weren't expecting $10 billion worth of coal."

     

  • Mine start-ups might be least of nickel's worries


    By Darcy Keith July 25, 2008 American Metal Market http://amm.com/2008-07-25__20-25-14.html

     

    "There are a number of places around the world where the existing production should not be taken for granted," said analyst John Tumazos of John Tumazos Very Independent Research,  LLC.
     

  • BankAtlantic Sues Firm, Analyst Bove for Defamation


    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=attGHLC37ww8

     

    download

  • Correnti Departs in Severcorr Reshuffle


    Febuary 2008 edition of American Metal market

     

    steel industry analyst John Tumazos said the move raised several questions.  "There's more that we don't know than we do know," he said.  "We would like to think that everyone would be fairly rewarded."

     

  • John Tumazos interview with The Gold Report transcript


    Download Document

     

  • HudBay dives into nickel via Skye buy


    By Darcy Keith June 24, 2008 http://amm.com/2008-06-24__21-39-44.html

     

    Fenix contains proven and probable reserves of 41.4 million tonnes of ore grading 1.63-percent nickel, which, according to John Tumazos of Very independent Research, LLC, represents two to three years of world consumption.  "The deposit is massive. I think the offer is low and is favorable to HudBay and a little light to Skye.?

     

    Misquote:  "proven and probable reserves of 41.4 million"

    Correction: 11 billion lb of ni resources or 5 mmt contained NI resources.

     

  • Esmark smells profit, says Severstal offer falls short


    By Michael Cowden, American Metal Market http://amm.com/2008-06-12__19-42-34.html

     

    The primary concern of Esmark's board should be finding the best deal for shareholders and making sure "the $17 or $19 check clears," analyst John Tumazos of Very Independent Research LLc, Holmdel, N.J. said.

     

  • Vale sparks takeover talk with $15B Share offering


    By Roberta Pregnaca, American Metal Market http://amm.com/2008-06-10__19-33-15.html

     

    Alcoa has more downstream exposure and might not be such a good fit with Vale's core competence, according to analyst John Tumazos, owner of Very independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J.

     

  • Galway seeks steel partner for N.M. mine


    By Sean Barry, American Metal Market http://amm.com/2008-06-05__19-58-37.html

     

    "It's a big-time discovery and my job is to figure out the best way to maximize the value of this project," Tumazos said.  "we're looking at possibly bringing in a steel company as a partner similar to what General Moly Inc. has done.  We're also looking at bringing in financial partners."

     

  • Severstal's Esmark bid might be hard to beat


    By Scott Robertson, American Metal Market http://amm.com/2008-05-30__20-03-28.html

     

    "If Franklin is backing Severstal, then it's a done deal," said John Tumazos, analyst at john Tumazos Very Independent Research, Holmdel N.J.  "Presumably, Franklin is a knowledgeable shareholder as a large institution.  If they are backing Severstal that should get it done."

     

     

  • GM truck, SUV cutbacks could trickle upstream


    By Michael Cowden, American Metal Market http://amm.com/2008-04-29__20-03-26.html

     

    The real problem for the steel industry is not declining auto sales, but supply constraints of raw materials such as iron ore and metallurgical coal, according to john Tumazos of John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC Holmdel, NJ.

     

     

  • Esmark deal pales next to old W-P bid

    By Scott Paterson, American Metal market http://amm.com/com/2008-05-01__15-47-28.html

    "The market got better, but (Wheeling-Pittsburgh's) operations got worse," analyst John Tumazos said. "The problem with comparing this offer to CSN's is that things change over time.  Wheeling-Pitt installed the electric-arc furnace (at Mingo Junction, Ohio) and it obviously is not working properly based on their financial numbers.  But even forgetting those numbers, it's better to sell early. CSN would have brought in slabs that would have bypassed those molten steel operations."
     
  • Nucor loses appeal in libel suit


    gsrg - nucor loses appeal vs Tumazos 4-24-08.pdf

     

  • Nucor Loses Bid to Reinstate Libel Lawsuit Against Prudential

    by Linda Sandler (Bloomberg) Full Story
     

  • Jury set in Nucor secrets case; libel suit shot down

    American Metal market htp://amm.com/2008-04-24__19-15-45.html
     
  • ATI Stock Climbs on Rumors about takeover by U.S. Steel


    John Tumazos, analyst at John Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel N.J. said he did not see how either company would benefit from such a combination.  He said he didn't believe U.S. Steel would but ATI as U.S. Steel is seeking "bolt-on" extensions with large synergies to existing U.S. iron ore, sheet, and tube or East European sheet units.

     

    American Metal Market, by Maria Guzzo: April 7, 2008 http://amm.com/wrappers/story.asp?file=/2008-04-07__18-51-50.xml

     

  • Skye resources to present at JTVIR Metals Conference March 27, 2008


     
    2008-03-25 JTVIR Announcement.pdf

     

  • Duluth Metals to present at JTVIR Metals Conference March 27, 2008


    http://www.duluthmetals.com/s/NewsReleases.asp

     

  • Taseko Mines to present at JTVIR Metals Conference


    http://www.tasekomines.com/tko/newsreleases.asp?reportid=292166
     

  • Dofasco sues for iron ore mine


    By Naomi Powell The Hamilton Spectator March 14, 2008 page A16

    Dofasco.doc
     

  • Tumazos Sees Global Economic `Boom' on Low Rates

    Mar. 11 (Bloomberg) -- John Tumazos, founder of Very Independent Research LLC, spoke yesterday with Bloomberg's Tom Keene from Holmdel, New Jersey, about commodity prices, the gold market and the global economy.

    weblink
     

  • Interview with John Tumazos

    htttp://www.wsw.com/webcast/vir/video.html
     

  • Hot-roll band prices surge to new highs: Benchmarker
     

    American metal Market by Maria Guzzo http://amm.com/2008-02-13__19-25-29.html
     

    John Tumazos, analyst at John Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J., said the price hikes "reflect December/ January scrap cost increases, which mills are now trying to recover with a time lag after the fact."
     
  • Century Aluminum
     

    Sunday (Charleston, WV) Gazette-Mail Sunday Feb 3, 2008 "Century has to face the numbers" By George Hohman
     

    Chief Operating Officer Wayne Hale said in September that alumina accounts for 37 percent of Ravenswood's costs; electricity, 26 percent; labor, 16 percent; carbon, 8 percent; and other raw materials, 12 percent.  John tumazos, an independent analyst, said Ravenswood's expenses are in the ballpark when compared to others.

     

  • U.S. Steel to raise production at Stelco facilities

    American Metal Markets http://amm.com/2008-02-04__15-44-12.html By Michael Cowden

    One industry analyst said the depreciating dollar was a concern.  It is unclear whether U.S. Steel will earn suitable returns from Stelco unless exchange rates change, according to John C. Tumazos, head of John Tumazos Very independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J.
     

  • SSAB said in talks to divest Ipsco's tubular operations
     

    American Metal Market by Michael Cowden http://amm.com/wrappers/story.asp?file=/2008-02-04__20-42-29.xml Feb 4, 2008.
     

    "The price SSAB paid was very generous," said John Tumazos of John Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, NJ.  And SSAB might be "very Happy" to exit a product line or two in order to reduce debt and capital employed, especially in the face of turmoil in the credit markets, he said.

     

  • Alcoa awaits BHP decision as Rio offer deadline looms

    American Metal Market by Mathew Lerner http://amm.com/2008-02-05__19-02-19.html Feb 5, 2008

    Alcoa could be taking a two-track approach, according to John C. Tumazos of John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LC, Holmdel, NJ.  Alcoa owns only 9 percent of the stake it purchased with Chinalco, meaning it directly controls no more than 1 percent of Rio stock.  Alcoa might swap that stake for a specific asset or flip it later at a profit, he said.

     

  • USS reportedly eyeing Bulgaria mill acquisition
     

    American Metal Market http://amm.com/2008-01-30__20-15-40.html By Maria Guzzo
     

    "It makes sense to integrate it with Belgrade and Kosice into their system.  Their advantage is defined as how efficient they could make them all." said John Tumazos, head of Very independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J., who added that although he had heard nothing about the negotiations, such a purchase could be beneficial to the Pittsburgh-based steelmaker.

     

  • Hot-roll band on strong drive in US, world export markets

    American Metal Markets http://amm.com/2008-01-30__20-12-53.html By Michael Cowden

    "Currency fluctuations could be partially accountable for the difference between U.S. and Chinese prices, as the U.S. dollar continues to weaken while the Chinese Yuan strengthens, said John Tumazos, analyst at John Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J.  And, of course, low customer inventories are encouraging North American steelmakers to increase domestic market prices, he added.

    Tumazos speculated that world export prices might be rising as U.S. mills divert supplies away from export markets to long-standing distributor customers- a move that might at first glance appear counterintuitive, given strong prices abroad.  "You can sell to the person you get the highest bid from, or you can go out and serve the customer who orders from every month," he said.

     

  • Duluth Complex projects move forward
     

    Article from The Northern Miner, Volume 93 Number 47, Jan 14-20, 2008
     

    "In a third-quarter conference call, Teck chief executive Don Lindsay told research analyst John Tumazos that there was "nothing material to report" on Mesaba, and that there "won't be for some time.""

     

  • Alcoa's Stint in the Minor Leagues

    Tuesday January 29, 2008 edition of the Wall Street Journal page C1

    By 2015, the Middle East smelters could produce aluminum 25% cheaper than Alcoa does now, says John Tumazos, who runs a metals-research concern called Very Independent Research.  "It will be very difficult for Alcoa to compete," he says.

     

  • Steel mat feel minimal recession fallout

    Article from American Metal Market January 22, 2008 http://amm.com/2008-01-22__19-22-39.html

    "The outlook for metal industries in general remains strong, according to John Tumazos, founder of John Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, NJ.  Companies such as U.S. Steel and Nucor could even use the market downturn as an opportunity to buy back shares at bargain prices."
     

  • Anglo American May Buy Brazil Projects

    Friday January 18, 2008 edition of the Wall Street Journal page 9

    "It is a coup that Anglo American is doing this deal," said John Tumazos, an analyst with Very Independent Research, LLC.  "All the iron-ore producers of the world envy Vale's spectacular resources in Brazil and would like to have something like it"  He said the price is justified, given the entry into a rich market
     

  • SeverCorr squeeze-out aimed at four top execs.

    Article from American Metals Markets.  SeverCorr squeeze-out aimed at four top execs

2007 news articles

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