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Recent Media Coverage of John Tumazos Very independent Research, LLC

  • Thompson Creek may be mulling buy: analysts

     

    American Metal Market by  Mick Bowen http://amm.com/2008-12-05__15-30-54.html

     

    Independent analyst John Tumazos said there was a chance Thompson Creek could use cash on hand to acquire any one of a half dozen molybdenum projects, but added it was just as likely the company hold on to it in case the price of molybdenum got worse. Molybdenum oide is currently selling for $9 to 410 a pound, while it averaged $30 a pound in 2007 and $33 a pound in the first nine months of this year. 

     

  • Alcoa Searches for Fresh Start in Troubled Market
     

    Wall Street Journal Wed. December 3, 2008 page B4.  by Robert Guy Mathews

     

    John Tumazos an analyst with Very Independent Research, said the company has few good options as its influence in the commodity world is nowhere as sure as it once was.  "They need to idle more smelters than they have cut," he said.

  • (BN) Freeport Cuts Molybdenum Output on `Sharp' Price Drop
     

    By Stewart Bailey
     

  • Smaller nickel miners facing an uphill road
     

    By Michael Cowden October 28, 2008 http://amm.com/2008-10-28__18-37-45.html

    Independent analyst John Tumazos also doubted there would be a wave of consolidation, but said smaller producers could become insolvent and eventually fail.  "Nobody in the nickel business makes money at $4.50 a pound," he said.

     

  • Nickel premiums steady despite lull
     

    By Michael Cowden October 24, 2008 http://amm.com/2008-10-24__17-15-45.html

    Independent mining analyst John Tumazos said current prices don't justify energy and chipping costs in many cases.  however, LME stockpiles amount to less than 3 percent of world usage, he pointed out, adding that many stainless steelmakers have been destocking since the second half of 2006.
     

  • NY group is kicking tires at former McLouth Steel
     

    By Michael Cowden October 16, 2008  http://amm.com/2008-10-16__17-44-48.html
     

    Still, despite all the economic gloom and doom, the site's infrastructure and potentially generous government incentives could make restarting the former mill a good idea, independent industry analyst  John Tumazos said.

     

  • Delay in Rio asset sale to bolster BHP bid
     

    By Tom Jennemann October 15, 2008 http://www.amm.com/2008-10-15__18-31-08.html
     

    But not everyone sees the divestment delay as a negative for the Anglo-Australian mining giant.  "The drop in oil prices almost cuts resin feedstock costs in half.  Whatever the packaging business was worth on July 3 as oil peaked, it's probably worth 25 percent more today because their profit margins should be much larger because the squeezes are alleviated," said independent metals analyst John tumazos.  "Delaying the sale because of finanical markets could be clever and a sign of strength and not weakness, particularly as it relates to the packaging (unit)."
     

  • Analysts mixed on financial crisis impact on steel M&As
     

    By Maria Guzzo October 7, 2008 http://www.amm.com/2008-10-07__10-38-35.html 
     

    Independent steel analyst John Tumazos also is pessimistic about more mergers and acquisitions occurring anytime soon.  "Steelmakers just got kicked out of 'paradise'," he said, noting that acquisitions will be a lower priority going forward.

     

  • Surma, Mital optimistic on M&As; investors not
     

    By Maria Guzzo October 7, 2008 http://www.amm.com/stories/story.asp?file=/2008-10-07__16-48-14.xml 
     

    Independent steel analyst John Tumazos also is pessimistic about more mergers and acquisitions occurring anytime soon.  "Steelmakers just got kicked out of 'paradise'," he said, noting that acquisitions will be a lower priority going forward.
     

  • Output cuts widen as mills react to slowdown
     

    By Scott Robertson October 3, 2008 http://www.amm.com/stories/story.asp?file=/2008-10-03__16-53-34.xml
     

    The lack of steel orders is a cause for concern among mills as they eye production cuts, according to John Tumazos, principal for Very Independent Research, LLC, Holmdel, N.J.

     

  • SDI mulling flat-roll mill, may target auto: Busse
     

    By Scott Robertson September 15, 2008 http://www.amm.com/2008-09-15__17-41-50.html
     

    "SDI earns slightly better margins and returns than its competitors," John Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J., said.  "there is always room for the best player," he added.

     

  • Labor deal "expensive" for U.S. Steel
     

    By Scott Robertson August 25, 2008 http://amm.com/2008-08-25__19-29-35.html
     

    John Tumazos analyst at Very Independent Research, Holmdel, N.J. said investors may be calculating that growth in other steel production is about to slow due to a drop in global demand.  there is some evidence that tightness in the market for steelmaking could be easing, he said.
     

  • USW-ArcelorMittal talks halt; strike said unlikely
     

    By Maria Guzzo Aug 11, 2008 http://amm.com/2008-08-11__19-49-46.html
     

    The cost of steel these days could also impact market movements, John Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J. said.

     

  • SeverCorr shift in scrap mix a "natural" process
     

    By Michael Cowden August 6, 2008 http://amm.com/2008-08-06__19-14-33.html
     

    No. 1 bundles and  No. 1 busheling prices currently stand at a premium to other grades of steel scrap in the United States and steel mills could be using other grades to avoid the high tags, according to John Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J.

     

  • ArcelorMittal said eyeing Alpha bid trumping Cliffs
     

    By Maria Guzzo August 1, 2008 http://amm.com/stories.asp?file=/2008-08-01__21-00-28.xml 
     

    "ArcelorMittal has expressed a goal to be more self-sufficient in metallurgical coal and iron ore," John Tumazos, an analyst with Very Independent Research, LLC, Holmdel, N.J. said.  "It may be that Mittal considers Alpha to be much more attractive than the typical met coal opportunity around the globe.

     

  • Teck's $13.8B deal to buy Fording Feeds M&A fever

     

    By Maria Guzzo July 29, 2008 American Metal Market http://amm.com/2008-07-29__19-35-57.html
     

    Steelmakers worldwide will be largely unaffected because the existing combination of ownership of supply and management will be maintained, John Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J. said.

     

  • Cliffs risks going from hunter to buyout target

     

    By Maria Guzzo July 25, 2008 American Metal Market http://amm.com/stories.asp?file=/2008-07-25__20-24-08.xml
     

    Analyst John Tumazos of John Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J. said he, too, understands Harbinger's actions.  "Shareholders own pieces of paper and sometimes they just assume the piece of paper is going to be the same," he said.  "It's always possible investors at Harbinger thought they were buying mostly into iron ore and weren't expecting $10 billion worth of coal."

     

  • Mine start-ups might be least of nickel's worries


    By Darcy Keith July 25, 2008 American Metal Market http://amm.com/2008-07-25__20-25-14.html

     

    "There are a number of places around the world where the existing production should not be taken for granted," said analyst John Tumazos of John Tumazos Very Independent Research,  LLC.
     

  • BankAtlantic Sues Firm, Analyst Bove for Defamation


    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=attGHLC37ww8

     

    download

  • Correnti Departs in Severcorr Reshuffle


    Febuary 2008 edition of American Metal market

     

    steel industry analyst John Tumazos said the move raised several questions.  "There's more that we don't know than we do know," he said.  "We would like to think that everyone would be fairly rewarded."

     

  • John Tumazos interview with The Gold Report transcript


    Download Document

     

  • HudBay dives into nickel via Skye buy


    By Darcy Keith June 24, 2008 http://amm.com/2008-06-24__21-39-44.html

     

    Fenix contains proven and probable reserves of 41.4 million tonnes of ore grading 1.63-percent nickel, which, according to John Tumazos of Very independent Research, LLC, represents two to three years of world consumption.  "The deposit is massive. I think the offer is low and is favorable to HudBay and a little light to Skye.?

     

    Misquote:  "proven and probable reserves of 41.4 million"

    Correction: 11 billion lb of ni resources or 5 mmt contained NI resources.

     

  • Esmark smells profit, says Severstal offer falls short


    By Michael Cowden, American Metal Market http://amm.com/2008-06-12__19-42-34.html

     

    The primary concern of Esmark's board should be finding the best deal for shareholders and making sure "the $17 or $19 check clears," analyst John Tumazos of Very Independent Research LLc, Holmdel, N.J. said.

     

  • Vale sparks takeover talk with $15B Share offering


    By Roberta Pregnaca, American Metal Market http://amm.com/2008-06-10__19-33-15.html

     

    Alcoa has more downstream exposure and might not be such a good fit with Vale's core competence, according to analyst John Tumazos, owner of Very independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J.

     

  • Galway seeks steel partner for N.M. mine


    By Sean Barry, American Metal Market http://amm.com/2008-06-05__19-58-37.html

     

    "It's a big-time discovery and my job is to figure out the best way to maximize the value of this project," Tumazos said.  "we're looking at possibly bringing in a steel company as a partner similar to what General Moly Inc. has done.  We're also looking at bringing in financial partners."

     

  • Severstal's Esmark bid might be hard to beat


    By Scott Robertson, American Metal Market http://amm.com/2008-05-30__20-03-28.html

     

    "If Franklin is backing Severstal, then it's a done deal," said John Tumazos, analyst at john Tumazos Very Independent Research, Holmdel N.J.  "Presumably, Franklin is a knowledgeable shareholder as a large institution.  If they are backing Severstal that should get it done."

     

     

  • GM truck, SUV cutbacks could trickle upstream


    By Michael Cowden, American Metal Market http://amm.com/2008-04-29__20-03-26.html

     

    The real problem for the steel industry is not declining auto sales, but supply constraints of raw materials such as iron ore and metallurgical coal, according to john Tumazos of John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC Holmdel, NJ.

     

     

  • Esmark deal pales next to old W-P bid

    By Scott Paterson, American Metal market http://amm.com/com/2008-05-01__15-47-28.html

    "The market got better, but (Wheeling-Pittsburgh's) operations got worse," analyst John Tumazos said. "The problem with comparing this offer to CSN's is that things change over time.  Wheeling-Pitt installed the electric-arc furnace (at Mingo Junction, Ohio) and it obviously is not working properly based on their financial numbers.  But even forgetting those numbers, it's better to sell early. CSN would have brought in slabs that would have bypassed those molten steel operations."
     
  • Nucor loses appeal in libel suit


    gsrg - nucor loses appeal vs Tumazos 4-24-08.pdf

     

  • Nucor Loses Bid to Reinstate Libel Lawsuit Against Prudential

    by Linda Sandler (Bloomberg) Full Story
     

  • Jury set in Nucor secrets case; libel suit shot down

    American Metal market htp://amm.com/2008-04-24__19-15-45.html
     
  • ATI Stock Climbs on Rumors about takeover by U.S. Steel


    John Tumazos, analyst at John Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel N.J. said he did not see how either company would benefit from such a combination.  He said he didn't believe U.S. Steel would but ATI as U.S. Steel is seeking "bolt-on" extensions with large synergies to existing U.S. iron ore, sheet, and tube or East European sheet units.

     

    American Metal Market, by Maria Guzzo: April 7, 2008 http://amm.com/wrappers/story.asp?file=/2008-04-07__18-51-50.xml

     

  • Skye resources to present at JTVIR Metals Conference March 27, 2008


     2008-03-25 JTVIR Announcement.pdf

     

  • Duluth Metals to present at JTVIR Metals Conference March 27, 2008


    http://www.duluthmetals.com/s/NewsReleases.asp

     

  • Taseko Mines to present at JTVIR Metals Conference


    http://www.tasekomines.com/tko/newsreleases.asp?reportid=292166

     

  • Dofasco sues for iron ore mine


    By Naomi Powell The Hamilton Spectator March 14, 2008 page A16

    Dofasco.doc
     

  • Tumazos Sees Global Economic `Boom' on Low Rates

    Mar. 11 (Bloomberg) -- John Tumazos, founder of Very Independent Research LLC, spoke yesterday with Bloomberg's Tom Keene from Holmdel, New Jersey, about commodity prices, the gold market and the global economy.

    weblink
     

  • Interview with John Tumazos

    htttp://www.wsw.com/webcast/vir/video.html

     

  • Hot-roll band prices surge to new highs: Benchmarker
     

    American metal Market by Maria Guzzo http://amm.com/2008-02-13__19-25-29.html
     

    John Tumazos, analyst at John Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J., said the price hikes "reflect December/ January scrap cost increases, which mills are now trying to recover with a time lag after the fact."
     
  • Century Aluminum
     

    Sunday (Charleston, WV) Gazette-Mail Sunday Feb 3, 2008 "Century has to face the numbers" By George Hohman
     

    Chief Operating Officer Wayne Hale said in September that alumina accounts for 37 percent of Ravenswood's costs; electricity, 26 percent; labor, 16 percent; carbon, 8 percent; and other raw materials, 12 percent.  John tumazos, an independent analyst, said Ravenswood's expenses are in the ballpark when compared to others.

     

  • U.S. Steel to raise production at Stelco facilities

    American Metal Markets http://amm.com/2008-02-04__15-44-12.html By Michael Cowden

    One industry analyst said the depreciating dollar was a concern.  It is unclear whether U.S. Steel will earn suitable returns from Stelco unless exchange rates change, according to John C. Tumazos, head of John Tumazos Very independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J.
     

  • SSAB said in talks to divest Ipsco's tubular operations
     

    American Metal Market by Michael Cowden http://amm.com/wrappers/story.asp?file=/2008-02-04__20-42-29.xml Feb 4, 2008.
     

    "The price SSAB paid was very generous," said John Tumazos of John Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, NJ.  And SSAB might be "very Happy" to exit a product line or two in order to reduce debt and capital employed, especially in the face of turmoil in the credit markets, he said.

     

  • Alcoa awaits BHP decision as Rio offer deadline looms

    American Metal Market by Mathew Lerner http://amm.com/2008-02-05__19-02-19.html Feb 5, 2008

    Alcoa could be taking a two-track approach, according to John C. Tumazos of John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LC, Holmdel, NJ.  Alcoa owns only 9 percent of the stake it purchased with Chinalco, meaning it directly controls no more than 1 percent of Rio stock.  Alcoa might swap that stake for a specific asset or flip it later at a profit, he said.

     

  • USS reportedly eyeing Bulgaria mill acquisition
     

    American Metal Market http://amm.com/2008-01-30__20-15-40.html By Maria Guzzo
     

    "It makes sense to integrate it with Belgrade and Kosice into their system.  Their advantage is defined as how efficient they could make them all." said John Tumazos, head of Very independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J., who added that although he had heard nothing about the negotiations, such a purchase could be beneficial to the Pittsburgh-based steelmaker.

     

  • Hot-roll band on strong drive in US, world export markets

    American Metal Markets http://amm.com/2008-01-30__20-12-53.html By Michael Cowden

    "Currency fluctuations could be partially accountable for the difference between U.S. and Chinese prices, as the U.S. dollar continues to weaken while the Chinese Yuan strengthens, said John Tumazos, analyst at John Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J.  And, of course, low customer inventories are encouraging North American steelmakers to increase domestic market prices, he added.

    Tumazos speculated that world export prices might be rising as U.S. mills divert supplies away from export markets to long-standing distributor customers- a move that might at first glance appear counterintuitive, given strong prices abroad.  "You can sell to the person you get the highest bid from, or you can go out and serve the customer who orders from every month," he said.

     

  • Duluth Complex projects move forward
     

    Article from The Northern Miner, Volume 93 Number 47, Jan 14-20, 2008
     

    "In a third-quarter conference call, Teck chief executive Don Lindsay told research analyst John Tumazos that there was "nothing material to report" on Mesaba, and that there "won't be for some time.""

     

  • Alcoa's Stint in the Minor Leagues

    Tuesday January 29, 2008 edition of the Wall Street Journal page C1

    By 2015, the Middle East smelters could produce aluminum 25% cheaper than Alcoa does now, says John Tumazos, who runs a metals-research concern called Very Independent Research.  "It will be very difficult for Alcoa to compete," he says.

     

  • Steel mat feel minimal recession fallout

    Article from American Metal Market January 22, 2008 http://amm.com/2008-01-22__19-22-39.html

    "The outlook for metal industries in general remains strong, according to John Tumazos, founder of John Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, NJ.  Companies such as U.S. Steel and Nucor could even use the market downturn as an opportunity to buy back shares at bargain prices."
     

  • Anglo American May Buy Brazil Projects

    Friday January 18, 2008 edition of the Wall Street Journal page 9

    "It is a coup that Anglo American is doing this deal," said John Tumazos, an analyst with Very Independent Research, LLC.  "All the iron-ore producers of the world envy Vale's spectacular resources in Brazil and would like to have something like it"  He said the price is justified, given the entry into a rich market
     

  • SeverCorr squeeze-out aimed at four top execs.

    Article from American Metals Markets.  SeverCorr squeeze-out aimed at four top execs

2007 news articles

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Send mail to joe@veryindependentresearch.com with questions or comments about this web site.
Last modified: 09/15/08

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